Baader-Helvea hat nach den starken Alcoa-Zahlen ein Sektor-Update verfasst, das auch für Amag Relevanz hat.

"Alcoa increased aluminum demand expectations slightly. Rising deficit supports aluminum price. 

Our conclusion
The end markets for aluminum are on a recovery path. With the third release in this year (January, April, July), Alcoa, again, increased its expectation for some end markets slightly. 

For the entire year, Alcoa, based on several market observers and own estimates, expects a deficit of 930,000 tons (730,000 tons in April) with a 105,000 tons surplus in China and a 1,035,000 tons deficit in the rest of the word. This increasing supply/demand delta should support aluminum prices further. An increase well above the USD 2,000 per ton seems likely.

Facts & Analysis
Especially growth in the US market for heavy truck & trailers is rising (10% to 14% vs. 5% to 9% before). Alcoa reported 2Q14 order intake in America 20% up yoy.

Alcoa end markets: Current assessment of 2014 vs. 2013 (July 2014) (for details please see table attached in PDF).

A rising aluminum price should be supportive for AMAG in the mid-term. The company has hedged only a minor portion of the aluminum production. However, a first influence of higher prices can only be seen in the course of 2H14. During 2014 AMAG booked a gain of more than EUR 10 mn from metal hedges which will not occur in this year.

We have a Hold rating on AMAG with a target price of EUR 24.50. The 2014 operating profit will come in below the 2014 numbers because of:

- Some margin pressure

- Lower average realized aluminum prices, less hedge gains

- The end phase of the high Capex with regard to the AMAG 2014 program which is on budget and plan"

Amag

Amag: Letzter Schlusskurs (Euro): 25.000, das ist der 32. beste von 128 Handelstagen (%-Perf.) , das ist der 3. beste von 128 Handelstagen (Preis) , Periodenhoch am 23.04.14 (Kurs: 25.100 Δ% -0.4), Periodentief am 30.12.13 (Kurs: 21.680 Δ% 15.31), 128 Handelstage, davon ↑ 63 → 6 ↓ 59 , Performance Periode: 15.31 %, Umsatz '14/'13: 60 %

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