Ich stimme der Verwendung von Cookies zu. Auch wenn ich diese Website weiter nutze, gilt dies als Zustimmung.

Bitte lesen und akzeptieren Sie die Datenschutzinformation und Cookie-Informationen, damit Sie unser Angebot weiter nutzen können. Natürlich können Sie diese Einwilligung jederzeit widerrufen.





CEE and the global economy: The big picture (Martin Ertl)

5 weitere Bilder
(mit historischen Bildtexten)

Economic Growth in World Regions

GDP growth by main expenditure category in CESEE

Job Vacancy Rates

Real disposable income, consumption and savings rate in Austria

Interest Rates

Autor:
Martin Ertl

Chief Economist, UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH

>> Website


>> zur Startseite mit allen Blogs

10.04.2018, 4944 Zeichen
  •   The global economic expansion is in full swing and accompanied by intensifying world trade.
  • The growth outlook for the United States has brightened, also due to the tax reform, and the Euro Area is continuing its recovery.
  • CEE remains Europe’s growth engine with GDP growth of 4.4 % in 2017 (y/y, excluding Russia).
  • Monetary policy continues to be accommodative despite of a gradual normalization.

  In 2017 we have seen the broadest synchronized global upsurge since 2010. The global economy expanded by 3.7 % (y/y) and according to the IMF’s latest update of its World Economic Outlook, global growth will be even higher, at 3.9 % (y/y), in 2018 and 2019. The prolonged growth momentum is supported by growing international trade. Growth in the volume of global trade has accelerated from 1.5 % in 2016 to 4.5 % in 2017. With the growing importance of international trade, uncertainties emerge from the protectionist shift of US trade policy. However, until now global sentiment indicators remain at elevated levels and global growth in the volume of trade has further accelerated to 5.6 % (y/y) in January 2018 (Figure 1). 

Both developed and emerging economies show continued growth momentum. The United States is the fastest growing advanced economic region with additional short-term stimulus from the US tax reform, even though its magnitude is subject to severe uncertainty and likely to be below 0.1 %-age points per annum over a 10-yer period. In the Euro Area, the recovery is continuing although a further business cycle acceleration has become more unlikely. Among emerging market economies, Emerging Asia and Emerging Europe are the fastest growing regions (Figure 2). The CEE region, in which UNIQA operates, was expanding at 4.4 % (y/y, excluding Russia) in 2017 and we expect growth to remain well above 3 % in 2018 (3.8 %) and 2019 (3.4 %).

  The CEE region remains Europe’s engine of economic growth. In 2017, domestic demand has been the primary growth driver (Figure 3). Decreasing unemployment rates and rising nominal and real wages have fuelled household consumption. Also, investment activity picked up markedly being supported by EU structural funds and accelerated construction activity. Net exports have only played a minor role, or contributed even negatively to GDP growth, as domestic demand fuelled import growth outpacing a decent export performance.

    Among individual countries, Romania has achieved the highest growth rate in 2017 at 6.8 % (y/y). Growth rates above 4 % (y/y) were also achieved in Poland (4.6 %), the Czech Republic (4.5 %), Montenegro (4.4 %) and Hungary (4.2 %). At the same time, labor markets are becoming tighter and the unmet demand for labor rises. This is most pronounced in the Czech Republic as shown by job vacancy rates (Figure 4). Moreover, unemployment rates are at, or close to, their historic lows and have decreased considerably during the last years in most CEE economies. In Central Europe (Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia) the unemployment rate has come down to 4.7 % in 2017 from above 10 % in the 2010-2013 period. However, some economies of Southern Eastern Europe have structurally weak labor markets with elevated unemployment rates. Despite of significant decreases, still more than 20 % of the economically active population are without a job in countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo or Macedonia.

In Austria, the business environment remains very positive this year amid a strong GDP growth and the recovery in the labor market. In Q4, the Austrian real GDP rose 0.8 % quarterly and by 3.6 % in annual terms. Growth was well balanced in 2017, with household consumption, investment and net exports positively contributing to GDP growth. The rapid recovery of the labor market contributes to the positive sentiment among consumers. The unemployment rate has been decelerating (5.5 %, 2017, Eurostat, seasonally-adjusted). In 2017, real disposable income remained almost unchanged while private consumption expanded, hence, savings (as a percentage of income) declined to 6.4 % (a level below the pre-crisis average).

The global expansion is solid and balanced both among world regions and sectors. In this positive macro-economic environment, the US central bank Fed and the ECB pursue a gradual monetary policy normalization. Nevertheless, monetary policy continues to be accommodative. Expectations for higher interest rates have been building. The US Fed funds rate was raised to 1.75 % in March and the ECB is expected to start an interest rate hiking cycle in 2019. In the Euro Area, the inflation rate was low in February and is expected to rise gradually during the next months. The ECB’s net asset purchases (QE) of 30 bn EUR per month are intended to run until September and most likely will be gradually adjusted towards zero afterwards.

Authors

Martin Ertl Franz Zobl

Chief Economist Economist

UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH


(10.04.2018)

BSN Podcasts
Christian Drastil: Wiener Börse Plausch

Private Investor Relations Podcast #23: Joachim Brunner zu IR quer über Kontinente, Sprachen, Aufsichten; als Bonus-Content 1x ATXPrime




 

Bildnachweis

1. Global Trade and Sentiment

2. Economic Growth in World Regions

3. GDP growth by main expenditure category in CESEE

4. Job Vacancy Rates

5. Real disposable income, consumption and savings rate in Austria

6. Interest Rates

Aktien auf dem Radar:DO&CO, Amag, AT&S, Austriacard Holdings AG, RHI Magnesita, SBO, Rosgix, Rosenbauer, FACC, Lenzing, OMV, Polytec Group, Zumtobel, Porr, Frequentis, Gurktaler AG Stamm, Wienerberger, Wolford, Wolftank-Adisa, Palfinger, Pierer Mobility, EuroTeleSites AG, Oberbank AG Stamm, BKS Bank Stamm, Marinomed Biotech, Österreichische Post, Verbund, GEA Group, Bayer, Fresenius Medical Care, Symrise.


Random Partner

Buwog
Die Buwog Group ist deutsch-österreichischer Komplettanbieter im Wohnimmobilienbereich. Insgesamt verfügt die Buwog Group über ein Portfolio mit rd. 51.000 Wohnungen. Mit einem Neubauvolumen von jährlich rund 700 Wohnungen im Großraum Wien ist die Buwog Group einer der aktivsten Wohnbauträger und Immobilienentwickler in Deutschland und Österreich.

>> Besuchen Sie 61 weitere Partner auf boerse-social.com/partner


Economic Growth in World Regions


GDP growth by main expenditure category in CESEE


Job Vacancy Rates


Real disposable income, consumption and savings rate in Austria


Interest Rates


 Latest Blogs

» Österreich-Depots: Das Amag-Thema macht Freude (Depot Kommentar)

» Börsegeschichte 15.1.: Extremes zu EVN (Börse Geschichte) (BörseGeschichte)

» Nachlese: Joe Brunner, Christian-Hendrik Knappe (audio cd.at)

» PIR-News: In den News: Strabag, Warimpex, Dadat, Tauros finanziert C-See...

» (Christian Drastil)

» Wiener Börse zu Mittag etwas fester: Amag, Polytec und Bajaj Mobility ge...

» Börse-Inputs auf Spotify zu u.a. Max Otte, Christian-Hendrik Knappe, ETF...

» ATX-Trends: Bawag, Erste Group, Bajaj Mobility ...

» Österreich-Depots: Etwas schwächer (Depot Kommentar)

» Börsegeschichte 14.1.: Lenzing x2 (Börse Geschichte) (BörseGeschichte)


Useletter

Die Useletter "Morning Xpresso" und "Evening Xtrakt" heben sich deutlich von den gängigen Newslettern ab. Beispiele ansehen bzw. kostenfrei anmelden. Wichtige Börse-Infos garantiert.

Newsletter abonnieren

Runplugged

Infos über neue Financial Literacy Audio Files für die Runplugged App
(kostenfrei downloaden über http://runplugged.com/spreadit)

per Newsletter erhalten


Meistgelesen
>> mehr





PIR-Zeichnungsprodukte
Newsflow
>> mehr

Börse Social Club Board
>> mehr
    Star der Stunde: Porr 1.77%, Rutsch der Stunde: Flughafen Wien -1.45%
    wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 16-17: VIG(1), Porr(1)
    Star der Stunde: Lenzing 1.29%, Rutsch der Stunde: FACC -0.69%
    wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 15-16: AT&S(1), Frequentis(1)
    Star der Stunde: FACC 0.86%, Rutsch der Stunde: AT&S -1.85%
    wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 14-15: CA Immo(2), OMV(1), RBI(1), Verbund(1), Agrana(1)
    Star der Stunde: Addiko Bank 1.43%, Rutsch der Stunde: UBM -0.69%
    wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 13-14: Telekom Austria(1), VIG(1), Semperit(1), RBI(1), Agrana(1), Porr(1), AT&S(1)
    Star der Stunde: Pierer Mobility 1.02%, Rutsch der Stunde: VIG -1.22%

    Featured Partner Video

    Private Investor Relations Podcast #21: Petra Heindl (Kinstellar) über das 1. Wiener HV-Kolleg, Aktivismus, IVA-Schwerpunktfragen + Single

    Petra Heindl (Kinstellar) spricht über das 1. Wiener HV-Kolleg, das nächste Woche in Wien stattfindet. Emittenten, Investoren und Anleger:innen soll die Gelegenheit gegeben werden, sich mit Expert:...

    Books josefchladek.com

    Pia Paulina Guilmoth & Jesse Bull Saffire
    Fishworm
    2025
    Void

    Wassili und Hans Luckhardt
    Zur neuen Wohnform
    1930
    Bauwelt-Verlag

    Anna Fabricius
    Home is where work is
    2024
    Self published

    Man Ray
    Photographie n'est pas L'Art
    1937
    GLM

    Robert Frank
    Os Americanos (first Brazilian edition)
    2017
    Instituto Moreira Salles


    10.04.2018, 4944 Zeichen
    •   The global economic expansion is in full swing and accompanied by intensifying world trade.
    • The growth outlook for the United States has brightened, also due to the tax reform, and the Euro Area is continuing its recovery.
    • CEE remains Europe’s growth engine with GDP growth of 4.4 % in 2017 (y/y, excluding Russia).
    • Monetary policy continues to be accommodative despite of a gradual normalization.

      In 2017 we have seen the broadest synchronized global upsurge since 2010. The global economy expanded by 3.7 % (y/y) and according to the IMF’s latest update of its World Economic Outlook, global growth will be even higher, at 3.9 % (y/y), in 2018 and 2019. The prolonged growth momentum is supported by growing international trade. Growth in the volume of global trade has accelerated from 1.5 % in 2016 to 4.5 % in 2017. With the growing importance of international trade, uncertainties emerge from the protectionist shift of US trade policy. However, until now global sentiment indicators remain at elevated levels and global growth in the volume of trade has further accelerated to 5.6 % (y/y) in January 2018 (Figure 1). 

    Both developed and emerging economies show continued growth momentum. The United States is the fastest growing advanced economic region with additional short-term stimulus from the US tax reform, even though its magnitude is subject to severe uncertainty and likely to be below 0.1 %-age points per annum over a 10-yer period. In the Euro Area, the recovery is continuing although a further business cycle acceleration has become more unlikely. Among emerging market economies, Emerging Asia and Emerging Europe are the fastest growing regions (Figure 2). The CEE region, in which UNIQA operates, was expanding at 4.4 % (y/y, excluding Russia) in 2017 and we expect growth to remain well above 3 % in 2018 (3.8 %) and 2019 (3.4 %).

      The CEE region remains Europe’s engine of economic growth. In 2017, domestic demand has been the primary growth driver (Figure 3). Decreasing unemployment rates and rising nominal and real wages have fuelled household consumption. Also, investment activity picked up markedly being supported by EU structural funds and accelerated construction activity. Net exports have only played a minor role, or contributed even negatively to GDP growth, as domestic demand fuelled import growth outpacing a decent export performance.

        Among individual countries, Romania has achieved the highest growth rate in 2017 at 6.8 % (y/y). Growth rates above 4 % (y/y) were also achieved in Poland (4.6 %), the Czech Republic (4.5 %), Montenegro (4.4 %) and Hungary (4.2 %). At the same time, labor markets are becoming tighter and the unmet demand for labor rises. This is most pronounced in the Czech Republic as shown by job vacancy rates (Figure 4). Moreover, unemployment rates are at, or close to, their historic lows and have decreased considerably during the last years in most CEE economies. In Central Europe (Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia) the unemployment rate has come down to 4.7 % in 2017 from above 10 % in the 2010-2013 period. However, some economies of Southern Eastern Europe have structurally weak labor markets with elevated unemployment rates. Despite of significant decreases, still more than 20 % of the economically active population are without a job in countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo or Macedonia.

    In Austria, the business environment remains very positive this year amid a strong GDP growth and the recovery in the labor market. In Q4, the Austrian real GDP rose 0.8 % quarterly and by 3.6 % in annual terms. Growth was well balanced in 2017, with household consumption, investment and net exports positively contributing to GDP growth. The rapid recovery of the labor market contributes to the positive sentiment among consumers. The unemployment rate has been decelerating (5.5 %, 2017, Eurostat, seasonally-adjusted). In 2017, real disposable income remained almost unchanged while private consumption expanded, hence, savings (as a percentage of income) declined to 6.4 % (a level below the pre-crisis average).

    The global expansion is solid and balanced both among world regions and sectors. In this positive macro-economic environment, the US central bank Fed and the ECB pursue a gradual monetary policy normalization. Nevertheless, monetary policy continues to be accommodative. Expectations for higher interest rates have been building. The US Fed funds rate was raised to 1.75 % in March and the ECB is expected to start an interest rate hiking cycle in 2019. In the Euro Area, the inflation rate was low in February and is expected to rise gradually during the next months. The ECB’s net asset purchases (QE) of 30 bn EUR per month are intended to run until September and most likely will be gradually adjusted towards zero afterwards.

    Authors

    Martin Ertl Franz Zobl

    Chief Economist Economist

    UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH UNIQA Capital Markets GmbH


    (10.04.2018)

    BSN Podcasts
    Christian Drastil: Wiener Börse Plausch

    Private Investor Relations Podcast #23: Joachim Brunner zu IR quer über Kontinente, Sprachen, Aufsichten; als Bonus-Content 1x ATXPrime




     

    Bildnachweis

    1. Global Trade and Sentiment

    2. Economic Growth in World Regions

    3. GDP growth by main expenditure category in CESEE

    4. Job Vacancy Rates

    5. Real disposable income, consumption and savings rate in Austria

    6. Interest Rates

    Aktien auf dem Radar:DO&CO, Amag, AT&S, Austriacard Holdings AG, RHI Magnesita, SBO, Rosgix, Rosenbauer, FACC, Lenzing, OMV, Polytec Group, Zumtobel, Porr, Frequentis, Gurktaler AG Stamm, Wienerberger, Wolford, Wolftank-Adisa, Palfinger, Pierer Mobility, EuroTeleSites AG, Oberbank AG Stamm, BKS Bank Stamm, Marinomed Biotech, Österreichische Post, Verbund, GEA Group, Bayer, Fresenius Medical Care, Symrise.


    Random Partner

    Buwog
    Die Buwog Group ist deutsch-österreichischer Komplettanbieter im Wohnimmobilienbereich. Insgesamt verfügt die Buwog Group über ein Portfolio mit rd. 51.000 Wohnungen. Mit einem Neubauvolumen von jährlich rund 700 Wohnungen im Großraum Wien ist die Buwog Group einer der aktivsten Wohnbauträger und Immobilienentwickler in Deutschland und Österreich.

    >> Besuchen Sie 61 weitere Partner auf boerse-social.com/partner


    Economic Growth in World Regions


    GDP growth by main expenditure category in CESEE


    Job Vacancy Rates


    Real disposable income, consumption and savings rate in Austria


    Interest Rates


     Latest Blogs

    » Österreich-Depots: Das Amag-Thema macht Freude (Depot Kommentar)

    » Börsegeschichte 15.1.: Extremes zu EVN (Börse Geschichte) (BörseGeschichte)

    » Nachlese: Joe Brunner, Christian-Hendrik Knappe (audio cd.at)

    » PIR-News: In den News: Strabag, Warimpex, Dadat, Tauros finanziert C-See...

    » (Christian Drastil)

    » Wiener Börse zu Mittag etwas fester: Amag, Polytec und Bajaj Mobility ge...

    » Börse-Inputs auf Spotify zu u.a. Max Otte, Christian-Hendrik Knappe, ETF...

    » ATX-Trends: Bawag, Erste Group, Bajaj Mobility ...

    » Österreich-Depots: Etwas schwächer (Depot Kommentar)

    » Börsegeschichte 14.1.: Lenzing x2 (Börse Geschichte) (BörseGeschichte)


    Useletter

    Die Useletter "Morning Xpresso" und "Evening Xtrakt" heben sich deutlich von den gängigen Newslettern ab. Beispiele ansehen bzw. kostenfrei anmelden. Wichtige Börse-Infos garantiert.

    Newsletter abonnieren

    Runplugged

    Infos über neue Financial Literacy Audio Files für die Runplugged App
    (kostenfrei downloaden über http://runplugged.com/spreadit)

    per Newsletter erhalten


    Meistgelesen
    >> mehr





    PIR-Zeichnungsprodukte
    Newsflow
    >> mehr

    Börse Social Club Board
    >> mehr
      Star der Stunde: Porr 1.77%, Rutsch der Stunde: Flughafen Wien -1.45%
      wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 16-17: VIG(1), Porr(1)
      Star der Stunde: Lenzing 1.29%, Rutsch der Stunde: FACC -0.69%
      wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 15-16: AT&S(1), Frequentis(1)
      Star der Stunde: FACC 0.86%, Rutsch der Stunde: AT&S -1.85%
      wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 14-15: CA Immo(2), OMV(1), RBI(1), Verbund(1), Agrana(1)
      Star der Stunde: Addiko Bank 1.43%, Rutsch der Stunde: UBM -0.69%
      wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 13-14: Telekom Austria(1), VIG(1), Semperit(1), RBI(1), Agrana(1), Porr(1), AT&S(1)
      Star der Stunde: Pierer Mobility 1.02%, Rutsch der Stunde: VIG -1.22%

      Featured Partner Video

      Private Investor Relations Podcast #21: Petra Heindl (Kinstellar) über das 1. Wiener HV-Kolleg, Aktivismus, IVA-Schwerpunktfragen + Single

      Petra Heindl (Kinstellar) spricht über das 1. Wiener HV-Kolleg, das nächste Woche in Wien stattfindet. Emittenten, Investoren und Anleger:innen soll die Gelegenheit gegeben werden, sich mit Expert:...

      Books josefchladek.com

      Joselito Verschaeve
      As Long as the Sun Lasts
      2025
      Void

      Krass Clement
      Født af mørket
      2025
      Gyldendal

      Henrik Spohler
      Flatlands
      2023
      Hartmann Projects

      Claudia Andujar
      Genocídio do Yanomami
      2025
      Void

      Ray K. Metzker
      City Lux
      2025
      Ludion Publishers