SOCIAL

NETWORK

Ich stimme der Verwendung von Cookies zu. Auch wenn ich diese Website weiter nutze, gilt dies als Zustimmung.

Bitte lesen und akzeptieren Sie die Datenschutzinformation und Cookie-Informationen, damit Sie unser Angebot weiter nutzen können. Natürlich können Sie diese Einwilligung jederzeit widerrufen.





Impressum | Cookies

SOCIAL

NETWORK

Die Homebase
österreichischer Aktien
NEU

Inbox: Raiffeisen-Analysten bullish auf Erste Group-Aktie


Erste Group
Akt. Indikation:  44.34 / 44.38
Uhrzeit:  13:00:28
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  -0.31%
Letzter SK:  44.50 ( -0.04%)

07.11.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Erste Group raised to BUY, TP EUR 40.0 - Same outlook, different year

3Q ahead of our and consensus estimates on low risk costs; core earnings in line
Similar to last year market seems disappointed with the undemanding guidance for next year; this could provide an entry opportunity (similar to last year)
Obvious turn around in Czech rates to support NIM
Chance for lower corporate income tax in Austria with the new government
Management committed on rising pay-out ratio above 13% target CET1
We only fine-tune our estimates, keep our TP of EUR 40 unchanged and thus change our recommendation from HOLD to BUY

Erste delivered solid 3Q earnings characterised by very low risk costs in most countries and core earnings in line with estimates on a group level. Similar to last year the market seems disappointed by the undemanding new guidance for next year, thus leading to a correction of the share price last Friday. We believe that similar to last year this share price weakening provides an entry opportunity and thus upgrade our recommendation from HOLD to BUY while confirming our target price of EUR 40.
 
On our TP Erste trades at 1.4x Tangible Book Value and at an ROTE of 11.0% (assumed stable 17-19e), which should be justified assuming COE of 6.5% in 2018 and 8.1% in our TV assumption. An even lower COE might be justified looking at Erstes recent AT1 pricing development. Supported by the recent S&P upgrade Erstes AT1 price increased significantly thus compressing the yield to call to currently 3.25% and the swap spread to below 300 bps.
 
We see the obvious turnaround in Czech rates (evidenced by last weeks second rate hike) as supportive for the expected NII turnaround (CZ rate sensitivity: EUR 20 mn p.a. for a 25 bps rate hike) despite ongoing headwinds from the amortising bond book in EUR countries. Thus we forecast the cost/income ratio to improve by >150 bps as opex should remain flat (we forecast a 1.4% increase) supported by lower IT/project costs related to regulatory projects to be finalised in 2018, thus compensating for a wage uplift in some CEE countries. Given management statements underlining that the 10%+ ROTE guidance refers to a floor we feel confident with our 11% 2018e ROTE forecast and thus only fine-tuned our model assumptions without a bottom-line change. We have further reduced our COR assumptions to 12 bps for 2017e/24 bps for 2018e and expect the group to reach the previous COR guidance of 30 bps only in 2019e.
 
A reduced corporate tax rate for retained earnings in Austria has been mentioned in the campaigning programs of the two parties currently in coalition talks (ÖVP and FPÖ). While we do not include a change of the tax code in our forecast, a potential 50% cut of the corporate tax rate for retained earnings (as stated in the FPÖ program, ÖVP suggested a full tax relief for retained earnings) might lead to a positive EPS impact of ca. 3-4% based on our calculation.
 
The CET1 ratio dropped to 12.8% (from 13.2%) and to 12.4% on a FL basis due to a one-off op-risk RWA uplift (management expects a reversal of this effect in 2018) and IRB model implementation in RO as well as non-inclusion of 3Q profits. Management guides for a 13%+ CET1 as of year-end and expressed increased confidence in a 13% CET target ratio and therefore reiterated its expectations of a rising DPS going forward. We leave our DPSe unchanged.
 

Company im Artikel

Erste Group

 
Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Banken
Show latest Report (04.11.2017)
 
Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Erste Group-Aktien sorgen die Erste Group Bank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Wood & Company Financial Services, Hudson River Trading Europe, Raiffeisen Centrobank AG, Société Générale S.A., Tower Research Capital und Virtu Financial Ireland Limited, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Erste Bank, Bankomat, Fotocredit: Erste Bank



Aktien auf dem Radar:Addiko Bank, Immofinanz, Marinomed Biotech, Flughafen Wien, Warimpex, EuroTeleSites AG, ATX Prime, ams-Osram, AT&S, Palfinger, RBI, Strabag, Pierer Mobility, UBM, CA Immo, Frequentis, Lenzing, SW Umwelttechnik, Oberbank AG Stamm, Wolford, Agrana, Amag, Erste Group, EVN, Kapsch TrafficCom, OMV, Österreichische Post, Telekom Austria, Uniqa, VIG, Wienerberger.

(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Random Partner #goboersewien

BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas ist eine führende europäische Bank mit internationaler Reichweite. Sie ist mit mehr als 190.000 Mitarbeitern in 74 Ländern vertreten, davon über 146.000 in Europa. BNP Paribas ist in vielen Bereichen Marktführer oder besetzt Schlüsselpositionen am Markt und gehört weltweit zu den kapitalstärksten Banken.

>> Besuchen Sie 68 weitere Partner auf boerse-social.com/goboersewien

Meistgelesen
>> mehr
Wie Evotec, ams-Osram, Manz, Infineon, Roche Holding und Ambarella für Gesprächsstoff sorgten
Strabag steigert Leistung und Ergebnis - höhere Dividende
Awards, Preise, Förderungen, Ehrungen, Q4/2015
Börse-Inputs auf Spotify zu u.a. Infineon, AT&S, Tesla, ESG, Marcel Hirscher, Coinbase
Guten Morgen mit Nestle, Sanofi, Holcim, Bucher, Unilever ...
Aurubis, Aixtron am besten (Peer Group Watch Deutsche Nebenwerte powered by Erste Group)




PIR-Zeichnungsprodukte
AT0000A2C5J0
AT0000A2QS86
AT0000A38NH3
Newsflow
>> mehr
Börse Social Club Board
>> mehr
    wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 12-13: Marinomed Biotech(1)
    Star der Stunde: Frequentis 1.14%, Rutsch der Stunde: Warimpex -3.6%
    wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 11-12: Palfinger(1), Kontron(1)
    Star der Stunde: AT&S 1.69%, Rutsch der Stunde: Warimpex -3.6%
    wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 10-11: Österreichische Post(1)
    Star der Stunde: Agrana 1.87%, Rutsch der Stunde: Andritz -4.34%
    wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 9-10: Kontron(2), Andritz(1), Uniqa(1)
    Smeilinho zu Palfinger
    Star der Stunde: Pierer Mobility 1.69%, Rutsch der Stunde: Warimpex -3.6%
    Featured Partner Video

    Keine April-Scherze

    Das Sporttagebuch mit Michael Knöppel - 1. April 2024 E-Mail: sporttagebuch.michael@gmail.com Instagram: @das_sporttagebuch Twitter: @Sporttagebuch_
    Das Sporttagebuch mit Michael Knöppel - 1. A...

    Books josefchladek.com

    Kurama
    erotiCANA
    2023
    in)(between gallery

    Horst Pannwitz
    Berlin. Symphonie einer Weltstadt
    1959
    Ernst Staneck Verlag

    Stefania Rössl & Massimo Sordi (eds.)
    Index Naturae
    2023
    Skinnerboox

    Kazumi Kurigami
    操上　和美
    2002
    Switch Publishing Co Ltd

    Vladyslav Krasnoshchok
    Bolnichka (Владислава Краснощока
    2023
    Moksop

    Inbox: Raiffeisen-Analysten bullish auf Erste Group-Aktie


    07.11.2017, 4693 Zeichen

    07.11.2017

    Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

    Erste Group raised to BUY, TP EUR 40.0 - Same outlook, different year

    3Q ahead of our and consensus estimates on low risk costs; core earnings in line
    Similar to last year market seems disappointed with the undemanding guidance for next year; this could provide an entry opportunity (similar to last year)
    Obvious turn around in Czech rates to support NIM
    Chance for lower corporate income tax in Austria with the new government
    Management committed on rising pay-out ratio above 13% target CET1
    We only fine-tune our estimates, keep our TP of EUR 40 unchanged and thus change our recommendation from HOLD to BUY

    Erste delivered solid 3Q earnings characterised by very low risk costs in most countries and core earnings in line with estimates on a group level. Similar to last year the market seems disappointed by the undemanding new guidance for next year, thus leading to a correction of the share price last Friday. We believe that similar to last year this share price weakening provides an entry opportunity and thus upgrade our recommendation from HOLD to BUY while confirming our target price of EUR 40.
     
    On our TP Erste trades at 1.4x Tangible Book Value and at an ROTE of 11.0% (assumed stable 17-19e), which should be justified assuming COE of 6.5% in 2018 and 8.1% in our TV assumption. An even lower COE might be justified looking at Erstes recent AT1 pricing development. Supported by the recent S&P upgrade Erstes AT1 price increased significantly thus compressing the yield to call to currently 3.25% and the swap spread to below 300 bps.
     
    We see the obvious turnaround in Czech rates (evidenced by last weeks second rate hike) as supportive for the expected NII turnaround (CZ rate sensitivity: EUR 20 mn p.a. for a 25 bps rate hike) despite ongoing headwinds from the amortising bond book in EUR countries. Thus we forecast the cost/income ratio to improve by >150 bps as opex should remain flat (we forecast a 1.4% increase) supported by lower IT/project costs related to regulatory projects to be finalised in 2018, thus compensating for a wage uplift in some CEE countries. Given management statements underlining that the 10%+ ROTE guidance refers to a floor we feel confident with our 11% 2018e ROTE forecast and thus only fine-tuned our model assumptions without a bottom-line change. We have further reduced our COR assumptions to 12 bps for 2017e/24 bps for 2018e and expect the group to reach the previous COR guidance of 30 bps only in 2019e.
     
    A reduced corporate tax rate for retained earnings in Austria has been mentioned in the campaigning programs of the two parties currently in coalition talks (ÖVP and FPÖ). While we do not include a change of the tax code in our forecast, a potential 50% cut of the corporate tax rate for retained earnings (as stated in the FPÖ program, ÖVP suggested a full tax relief for retained earnings) might lead to a positive EPS impact of ca. 3-4% based on our calculation.
     
    The CET1 ratio dropped to 12.8% (from 13.2%) and to 12.4% on a FL basis due to a one-off op-risk RWA uplift (management expects a reversal of this effect in 2018) and IRB model implementation in RO as well as non-inclusion of 3Q profits. Management guides for a 13%+ CET1 as of year-end and expressed increased confidence in a 13% CET target ratio and therefore reiterated its expectations of a rising DPS going forward. We leave our DPSe unchanged.
     

    Company im Artikel

    Erste Group

     
    Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Banken
    Show latest Report (04.11.2017)
     
    Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Erste Group-Aktien sorgen die Erste Group Bank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Wood & Company Financial Services, Hudson River Trading Europe, Raiffeisen Centrobank AG, Société Générale S.A., Tower Research Capital und Virtu Financial Ireland Limited, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



    Erste Bank, Bankomat, Fotocredit: Erste Bank





    BSN Podcasts
    Christian Drastil: Wiener Börse Plausch

    Börsenradio Live-Blick, Do. 25.4.24: DAX clincht mit 18000, Deutsche Bank, Mercedes, Commerzbank, VIG, Palfinger last 5 im TPT




    Erste Group
    Akt. Indikation:  44.34 / 44.38
    Uhrzeit:  13:00:28
    Veränderung zu letztem SK:  -0.31%
    Letzter SK:  44.50 ( -0.04%)



     

    Bildnachweis

    1. Erste Bank, Bankomat, Fotocredit: Erste Bank   >> Öffnen auf photaq.com

    Aktien auf dem Radar:Addiko Bank, Immofinanz, Marinomed Biotech, Flughafen Wien, Warimpex, EuroTeleSites AG, ATX Prime, ams-Osram, AT&S, Palfinger, RBI, Strabag, Pierer Mobility, UBM, CA Immo, Frequentis, Lenzing, SW Umwelttechnik, Oberbank AG Stamm, Wolford, Agrana, Amag, Erste Group, EVN, Kapsch TrafficCom, OMV, Österreichische Post, Telekom Austria, Uniqa, VIG, Wienerberger.

    Random Partner

    BNP Paribas
    BNP Paribas ist eine führende europäische Bank mit internationaler Reichweite. Sie ist mit mehr als 190.000 Mitarbeitern in 74 Ländern vertreten, davon über 146.000 in Europa. BNP Paribas ist in vielen Bereichen Marktführer oder besetzt Schlüsselpositionen am Markt und gehört weltweit zu den kapitalstärksten Banken.

    >> Besuchen Sie 68 weitere Partner auf boerse-social.com/partner


    Erste Bank, Bankomat, Fotocredit: Erste Bank


    Useletter

    Die Useletter "Morning Xpresso" und "Evening Xtrakt" heben sich deutlich von den gängigen Newslettern ab. Beispiele ansehen bzw. kostenfrei anmelden. Wichtige Börse-Infos garantiert.

    Newsletter abonnieren

    Runplugged

    Infos über neue Financial Literacy Audio Files für die Runplugged App
    (kostenfrei downloaden über http://runplugged.com/spreadit)

    per Newsletter erhalten


    Meistgelesen
    >> mehr
    Wie Evotec, ams-Osram, Manz, Infineon, Roche Holding und Ambarella für Gesprächsstoff sorgten
    Strabag steigert Leistung und Ergebnis - höhere Dividende
    Awards, Preise, Förderungen, Ehrungen, Q4/2015
    Börse-Inputs auf Spotify zu u.a. Infineon, AT&S, Tesla, ESG, Marcel Hirscher, Coinbase
    Guten Morgen mit Nestle, Sanofi, Holcim, Bucher, Unilever ...
    Aurubis, Aixtron am besten (Peer Group Watch Deutsche Nebenwerte powered by Erste Group)




    PIR-Zeichnungsprodukte
    AT0000A2C5J0
    AT0000A2QS86
    AT0000A38NH3
    Newsflow
    >> mehr
    Börse Social Club Board
    >> mehr
      wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 12-13: Marinomed Biotech(1)
      Star der Stunde: Frequentis 1.14%, Rutsch der Stunde: Warimpex -3.6%
      wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 11-12: Palfinger(1), Kontron(1)
      Star der Stunde: AT&S 1.69%, Rutsch der Stunde: Warimpex -3.6%
      wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 10-11: Österreichische Post(1)
      Star der Stunde: Agrana 1.87%, Rutsch der Stunde: Andritz -4.34%
      wikifolio-Trades Austro-Aktien 9-10: Kontron(2), Andritz(1), Uniqa(1)
      Smeilinho zu Palfinger
      Star der Stunde: Pierer Mobility 1.69%, Rutsch der Stunde: Warimpex -3.6%
      Featured Partner Video

      Keine April-Scherze

      Das Sporttagebuch mit Michael Knöppel - 1. April 2024 E-Mail: sporttagebuch.michael@gmail.com Instagram: @das_sporttagebuch Twitter: @Sporttagebuch_
      Das Sporttagebuch mit Michael Knöppel - 1. A...

      Books josefchladek.com

      Naotaka Hirota
      La Scène de la Locomotive à Vapeur
      1975
      Yomiuri Shimbun

      Ed van der Elsken
      Liebe in Saint Germain des Pres
      1956
      Rowohlt

      Adrianna Ault
      Levee
      2023
      Void

      Igor Chekachkov
      NA4JOPM8
      2021
      ist publishing

      Ros Boisier
      Inside
      2024
      Muga / Ediciones Posibles

      (c) 2024 FC Chladek Drastil GmbH   |   Impressum   |   Datenschutz- und Cookie-Bestimmungen   |   Realtime Indikationen: L&S   |   End of Day Kurse: TeleTrader   |   Indices Indikationen: Deutsche Bank