Inbox: Trotz Deutschland-Unsicherheit: bwin-Mutter GVC bleibt für Berenberg ein Buy

Die Analysten der Berenberg Bank bleiben bei ihrer Kaufempfehlung für den Gaming-Konzern GVC , zu dem bekanntlich auch die heimische bwin gehört. Das Kursziel bleibt bei GBp 1.100. Laut den Analysten scheint der Markt sehr besorgt über den deutschen Online-Gaming-Markt zu sein, was die Aktie deutlich einschränkt. Für die Analysten ist dies aber überzogen, da  Deutschland nur einen geringen Teil des gemeinsamen GVC und-Ladbrokes EBITDA ausmacht:

 

Hier der Original-Text der Berenberg Bank:

 

Despite an excellent Q4 2017, GVC’s share price was affected by “German risk”: GVC’s share price has barely moved since the announcement of the Ladbrokes-Coral (LCL) deal in December, despite the company reporting an excellent Q4 2017 trading update (total net gaming revenues were up by 29% yoy in constant currency and 37% yoy on an underlying basis). The market seems increasingly concerned about digital gaming in Germany, which has prevented the share price from moving up. We believe these concerns are overblown, as discussed below. 

●  Situation in recent months has not materially changed: As a reminder, 20 digital sportsbetting licensees are currently operating in Germany (GVC is one of them) and paying a gaming tax equalling 5% of wagers. Conversely, online gaming is prohibited under the current interstate treaty. However, operators, including GVC, still offer digital games under the protection of EU law – and pay a 19% VAT on such revenues to the German state. In recent months, three German Courts have ruled that the ban on digital gaming is unconstitutional, but a fourth (the Court of Leipzig) has expressed the opposite opinion. This has meant that the move towards better regulation of gaming, which was largely expected to take place this year, is slowing down.

●  Meeting of the Länder on 1-2 February unlikely to be conclusive: On 1 and 2 February, the representatives of the Länder – the German federal states – will meet and should discuss gaming regulation, among other topics. We believe that the biggest “risk” is that they confirm the status quo on digital gaming. While that could appear on paper as a negative, we believe it would be a non-event in practice. We do not anticipate any sizeable operator withdrawing from the market, as all companies would still be able to claim that their activities are compliant with EU rules. Furthermore, we struggle to believe that Germany will easily give up on the VAT intake. Ultimately, over the longer term, we think Germany will fully legalise digital gaming.

●  Risks are limited, as German gaming is c6-8% of GVC-LCL EBITDA: We think that the risks that German regulation ends up significantly harming GVC are extremely limited. In any event, once GVC and LCL merge, we calculate that German gaming would represent only between 6% and 8% of the new group’s EBITDA in 2018 – less than half of the contribution German gaming was making to GVC as a stand-alone company. We remain buyers of the shares.