Inbox: Palfinger scheint on track zu sein

Palfinger AG

Capital Goods & Industrial Engineering
Buy; PT: EUR45.00

Palfinger’s new CFO Felix Strohbichler was upbeat in his presentation on the final day of this year’s European conference. The company appears to be on track to complete its restructuring measures in the US and reiterated its EBIT margin target of 10% for this region and the group by 2018.

Marine strategy reiterated: Palfinger continues to pursue its strategy of becoming a top-three player in marine deck equipment with sales of EUR500m-600m. Following the Harding acquisition, Mr Strohbichler confirmed that expansion via further deals will continue, albeit most likely smaller ones. Future acquisition targets could help the company to reduce its exposure to oil and gas further, which currently makes up c30% of the marine segment.

Readacross: Technology is increasingly becoming a way for premium players in the capital goods space to differentiate their product. Looking ahead, data analytics will play an increasing role in the competitive environment.

Our view in a nutshell: Palfinger is the leading premium player in an oligopolistic industry with high entry barriers. It manufactures mounted, mobile lifting and load-handling solutions, such as cranes and hydraulic lifting machinery, and holds a dominant c30% market share in its core truck-mounted cranes products in Europe, which makes up more than 50% of revenues. Its dense sales and services network in this region creates a significant barrier to entry, sustaining the oligopolistic industry structure. Palfinger is a strong beneficiary of the ongoing replacement cycle in Europe and continued growth in US residential construction.

Valuation: Palfinger trades at a 9% discount to its peer group of equipment-handling manufacturers on 2018E EV/EBIT (12.5x versus 13.8x average) despite a much better margin profile. Our current price target of EUR45.00 is derived using a DCF approach. We are broadly in line with consensus on 2017/18/19E sales and EBIT.