Inbox: Berenberg Bank ist bullish auf Vonovia, auch dank Buwog

Die Berenberg Bank ist bullish auf die Vonovia-Aktie und erhöht das Kursziel von 44 auf 47 Euro. Die Anlage-Empfehlung ist "Buy". Die Buwog-Akquisition wird als vernünftig bezeichnet.
 

Hier die Einschätzung der Analysten:

Portfolio performing well: We raise our price target for Vonovia to €47 after the share price has almost reached our previous target of €44. We expect the company to continue disposing properties in regions where critical mass is missing and where the potential for rent increases after additional spending for value-enhancing capex is limited. As of September, Vonovia was exposed to about 560 locations, while the strategic portfolio only sees properties in about 400 locations. In addition, we lower our assumptions for external growth similar to peers as the overall supply of sizeable residential portfolios in Germany will remain scarce. Accordingly, we regard the takeover bid of BUWOG and Vonovia’s approach to accelerate the construction of new properties as very reasonable. Having raised our assumptions for lfl rental growth of the portfolio, with a higher percentage coming from value-enhancing capex spending (also done by similar-sized peers), we expect the FFO I per share (adjusted EPS, excluding BUWOG) for 2018 and 2019 to improve by more than 7%, predominantly from internal growth. For FY 2018, Vonovia is guiding for a growth in FFO I per share of about 6.3%. Overall, we think our assumptions are conservative and expect the company to continue focusing on cost savings and improving the operational efficiency.

 

BUWOG takeover with some side-effects...: We are positive about Vonovia’s intention to take over BUWOG with the tender offer announced on 18 December 2017. On 5 February, the offer document will be published with the initial acceptance period running from 6 February – 12 March. The end of the additional acceptance period will be on 18 June. We think the minimum acceptance level of 50% plus one share is reachable, also because of BUWOG’s supporting the offer. However, we think that this deal is more than “another bolt-on acquisition”, as described by Vonovia, because: a) it will be entirely financed by debt, which is different to previous M&A by Vonovia and peers; b) with BUWOG’s c22,000 units in Austria, Vonovia will have a sizeable local portfolio (7% on a combined basis). However, the lfl rental growth of the combined portfolio might initially be lower than Vonovia’s now predicted c4% pa from 2018, due to the restrictive Austrian residential law; and c) this is different to the recently completed takeover of the Vienna-listed conwert , as a potential squeeze-out of BUWOG might take time creating a higher complexity for the enlarged Vonovia organisation.