Die Analysten der Berenberg Bank erhöhen das Kursziel für den Verbund von 23,5 auf nunmehr 24,5 Euro und bestätigen die Kaufempfehlung. Die Analysten gehen davon aus, dass die Energiepreise weiter um etwa 15 Prozent steigen werden, wenn nicht sogar um 30 Prozent und der Verbund ist laut Analysten einer jener Versorger, der stark auf die Energiepreise reagiert. Die Berenberg-Analysten heben ihre EPS-Schätzungen auf über die Konsensusschätzungen an.

 

Hier die Original-Worte der Analysten:

Raising estimates and price target: Following hot on the heels of our 11 January upgrade note, we are incorporating revised guidance for 2017 reflecting better hydro conditions, ancillary services, cost cutting and results in the grid division. We were already ahead of consensus and are now raising EPS estimates by 13%/5%/4%/3% for 2017/18/19/20, respectively. Our price target goes up by 4% to €24.5 and we remain buyers.

 

●  We expect power prices to rally a further 15%, possibly as much as 30%: Verbund’s share price is highly correlated with the German/Austrian power price. It is well known that Verbund is one of the most highly sensitive utilities to the power price. We now forecast EPS 21%/34%/69% above consensus for 2019/2020/2021, respectively. Our DPS forecasts are even more bullish at 27%/90%/106%, respectively.

 

●  Risk/reward skewed to the upside: Our blue-sky /black-sky scenarios yield 34% upside and 16% downside, respectively. The largest driver of our blue- /black-sky scenarios is a €5/t movement in carbon prices which has a +/- 15% impact on valuation.

 

●  Austrian/German power prices are set to rally a further 15%: As discussed in detail in our sector report last week, we expect the carbon price to triple by 2020 to €21/t. Under our blue-sky scenario for carbon prices as high as €40/t, this could imply a 30% increase in power prices.

 

●  Very sensitive to power prices: We expect a €5/MWh move in the power price will impact net income by 17% once its hedges roll off in 2019. 98% of Verbund’s output is geared to a power price hike; it is hydro which is low fixed-cost and completely CO2 free. Generation itself accounts for 65% of EBITDA (retail 19% and networks 16%). Verbund typically hedges for 18 months in advance. It is currently hedged at 74% for 2018 at €25/MWh and 43% for 2019 at €28/MWh. We expect its achieved power price to reach €42/MWh by 2021 from €30/MWh in 2017. Since hydro output should be in the region of 30 TWh, that implies an EBITDA boost of €360m, 40% of 2016’s level.

 

●  We expect dividends to triple: Verbund targets a 40%-45% dividend payout ratio for 2017. We expect DPS to more than triple from €0.29 in 2016 to €1.10 by 2021. This assumes a payout ratio of 40%-45% is maintained through 2019; from 2020 we assume a normalised 60%, reflecting an improvement in credit metrics. Accompanying the doubling in EPS from 2017 to 2021 should be a DPS tripling. In our view, the balance sheet will be able to take it.

 

●  Balance sheet improvement: The cash flow boost from higher power prices should feed through into reducing net debt by 41% from 2017E to 2021E. This, coupled with the 45% growth in EBITDA, will reduce gearing from 3.6x in 2016 to 1.3x in 2021E.