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Inbox: RCB bestätigt Hold für Palfinger
Palfinger
Uhrzeit: 08:02:49
Veränderung zu letztem SK: -0.85%
Letzter SK: 35.45 ( -0.98%)
31.10.2017
Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)
We confirm the HOLD rating and the target price of EUR 42. Although Palfinger is well on track for new record sales and earnings in 2017e, 3Q results were not as good as expected and we think that our previous FY forecasts were too ambitious. The management reiterated its guidance of further top line growth but did not explicitly confirm the previous indication of ca. 10%. Regarding the target of a double-digit EBIT margin (before restructuring costs, but including positive one-offs) it was acknowledged that it could be rather a rounded double-digit figure (so >9.5%) than in the 10.X% magnitude. So while not far off, consensus expectations might come down a bit. Additionally more restructuring efforts are required, which goes along with higher charges this year and some costs to be digested also in 2018e. The message regarding trading conditions, particularly for the Land segment, remained a bullish one. Order intake growth across European markets (with the exception of the UK) was compelling and also demand in China is growing again. The marine crane business seems to get closer to the bottom (single-digit organic decline largely stable ytd), although the inflection point might is not yet visible given Palfingers back-end position in the vessels production value chain. To sum up, our view on the investment case is unchanged. Palfinger is a compelling growth story, but that is well reflected in market estimates which discount the companys bullish outlook. 2017-18 adjusted P/Es of 17.0x and 14.1x are slightly above the long-term median (last 7 years) of ca. 16.0x and 13.1x, respectively. The long-term EV/EBITDA medians of 10.0x (1y fwd) and 8.4x (2y fwd) are in line with current trading multiples of 9.9x and 8.1x, respectively. Our target price implies a 2018e P/E of 15.5x, EV/EBITDA of 9.5x and EV/EBIT of 13.0x.
Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 42 (incl. DPS of EUR 0.64) is based on a combination of a DCF model (TG 2%, perpetual EBIT margin 12.5%, weighting 2/3) and an economic profit model (post-tax ROCE of 11% in 2018e).
Company im Artikel
Show latest Report (28.10.2017)
8353
rcb_bestatigt_hold_fur_palfinger
Aktien auf dem Radar:Amag, Polytec Group, Verbund, Kapsch TrafficCom, Semperit, Frequentis, Wienerberger, Mayr-Melnhof, Palfinger, ATX, ATX Prime, ATX TR, FACC, Pierer Mobility, Porr, ATX NTR, Erste Group, EVN, CPI Europe AG, Lenzing, Addiko Bank, Agrana, BKS Bank Stamm, Oberbank AG Stamm, Josef Manner & Comp. AG, RHI Magnesita, Wolford, Österreichische Post, BASF, 3M, Fresenius Medical Care.
(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)188811
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Daniele TorrigliaInbox: RCB bestätigt Hold für Palfinger
31.10.2017, 4124 Zeichen
31.10.2017
Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)
We confirm the HOLD rating and the target price of EUR 42. Although Palfinger is well on track for new record sales and earnings in 2017e, 3Q results were not as good as expected and we think that our previous FY forecasts were too ambitious. The management reiterated its guidance of further top line growth but did not explicitly confirm the previous indication of ca. 10%. Regarding the target of a double-digit EBIT margin (before restructuring costs, but including positive one-offs) it was acknowledged that it could be rather a rounded double-digit figure (so >9.5%) than in the 10.X% magnitude. So while not far off, consensus expectations might come down a bit. Additionally more restructuring efforts are required, which goes along with higher charges this year and some costs to be digested also in 2018e. The message regarding trading conditions, particularly for the Land segment, remained a bullish one. Order intake growth across European markets (with the exception of the UK) was compelling and also demand in China is growing again. The marine crane business seems to get closer to the bottom (single-digit organic decline largely stable ytd), although the inflection point might is not yet visible given Palfingers back-end position in the vessels production value chain. To sum up, our view on the investment case is unchanged. Palfinger is a compelling growth story, but that is well reflected in market estimates which discount the companys bullish outlook. 2017-18 adjusted P/Es of 17.0x and 14.1x are slightly above the long-term median (last 7 years) of ca. 16.0x and 13.1x, respectively. The long-term EV/EBITDA medians of 10.0x (1y fwd) and 8.4x (2y fwd) are in line with current trading multiples of 9.9x and 8.1x, respectively. Our target price implies a 2018e P/E of 15.5x, EV/EBITDA of 9.5x and EV/EBIT of 13.0x.
Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 42 (incl. DPS of EUR 0.64) is based on a combination of a DCF model (TG 2%, perpetual EBIT margin 12.5%, weighting 2/3) and an economic profit model (post-tax ROCE of 11% in 2018e).
Company im Artikel
Show latest Report (28.10.2017)
8353
rcb_bestatigt_hold_fur_palfinger
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Palfinger
Uhrzeit: 08:02:49
Veränderung zu letztem SK: -0.85%
Letzter SK: 35.45 ( -0.98%)
Bildnachweis
1.
Palfinger
, (© Martina Draper/photaq) >> Öffnen auf photaq.com
Aktien auf dem Radar:Amag, Polytec Group, Verbund, Kapsch TrafficCom, Semperit, Frequentis, Wienerberger, Mayr-Melnhof, Palfinger, ATX, ATX Prime, ATX TR, FACC, Pierer Mobility, Porr, ATX NTR, Erste Group, EVN, CPI Europe AG, Lenzing, Addiko Bank, Agrana, BKS Bank Stamm, Oberbank AG Stamm, Josef Manner & Comp. AG, RHI Magnesita, Wolford, Österreichische Post, BASF, 3M, Fresenius Medical Care.
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