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Inbox: RCB bestätigt Hold für Palfinger


Palfinger
Akt. Indikation:  24.15 / 24.40
Uhrzeit:  13:53:06
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  1.15%
Letzter SK:  24.00 ( -2.24%)

31.10.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

We confirm the HOLD rating and the target price of EUR 42. Although Palfinger is well on track for new record sales and earnings in 2017e, 3Q results were not as good as expected and we think that our previous FY forecasts were too ambitious. The management reiterated its guidance of further top line growth but did not explicitly confirm the previous indication of ca. 10%. Regarding the target of a double-digit EBIT margin (before restructuring costs, but including positive one-offs) it was acknowledged that it could be rather a rounded double-digit figure (so >9.5%) than in the 10.X% magnitude. So while not far off, consensus expectations might come down a bit. Additionally more restructuring efforts are required, which goes along with higher charges this year and some costs to be digested also in 2018e. The message regarding trading conditions, particularly for the Land segment, remained a bullish one. Order intake growth across European markets (with the exception of the UK) was compelling and also demand in China is growing again. The marine crane business seems to get closer to the bottom (single-digit organic decline largely stable ytd), although the inflection point might is not yet visible given Palfingers back-end position in the vessels production value chain. To sum up, our view on the investment case is unchanged. Palfinger is a compelling growth story, but that is well reflected in market estimates which discount the companys bullish outlook. 2017-18 adjusted P/Es of 17.0x and 14.1x are slightly above the long-term median (last 7 years) of ca. 16.0x and 13.1x, respectively. The long-term EV/EBITDA medians of 10.0x (1y fwd) and 8.4x (2y fwd) are in line with current trading multiples of 9.9x and 8.1x, respectively. Our target price implies a 2018e P/E of 15.5x, EV/EBITDA of 9.5x and EV/EBIT of 13.0x.
 

Strong 4Q results required: Palfingers FY 17 outlook suggests adj. EBIT of approx. EUR 145 mn. In order to reach this figure, 4Q adj. EBIT needs to be about at the 2Q level (the seasonally strongest quarter) of ca. EUR 40 mn. This in turn implies a ca. 50% yoy increase and margin a notch above 10%. Apart from the flagged price increase and the good order book, we think requires a combination of profitable product mix and sequentially lower corporate costs.
 
Lower estimates: We have reduced 2017e adj. EBIT by 3% to EUR 146 mn, implying a 30 bps margin cut to 9.8%. Coupled with higher restructuring costs and a weaker financial result this triggered a 9% EPS cut to EUR 1.95. For 2018e we have kept adj. EBIT of EUR 168 mn unchanged, but incorporating restructuring costs of EUR 5 mn translates into 3% lower stated EBIT of EUR 163 mn and 4% lower EPS of EUR 2.68. Virtually no changes were made to 2019e.
 
Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 42 (incl. DPS of EUR 0.64) is based on a combination of a DCF model (TG 2%, perpetual EBIT margin 12.5%, weighting 2/3) and an economic profit model (post-tax ROCE of 11% in 2018e).

Company im Artikel

Palfinger

 
Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Crane
Show latest Report (28.10.2017)
 
Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Palfinger-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker ICF BANK AG, Deutsche Bank AG, Erste Group Bank AG und Virtu Financial Ireland Limited, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Palfinger © Martina Draper/photaq



Aktien auf dem Radar:DO&CO, Rosenbauer, Polytec Group, Austriacard Holdings AG, Addiko Bank, SBO, Rosgix, Porr, Uniqa, VIG, CA Immo, Österreichische Post, AT&S, ams-Osram, Frequentis, Kostad, Marinomed Biotech, Warimpex, S Immo, SW Umwelttechnik, Oberbank AG Stamm, Strabag, Zumtobel, Flughafen Wien, Athos Immobilien, Agrana, Amag, Erste Group, EVN, Immofinanz, Telekom Austria.

(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

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    Inbox: RCB bestätigt Hold für Palfinger


    31.10.2017, 4124 Zeichen

    31.10.2017

    Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

    We confirm the HOLD rating and the target price of EUR 42. Although Palfinger is well on track for new record sales and earnings in 2017e, 3Q results were not as good as expected and we think that our previous FY forecasts were too ambitious. The management reiterated its guidance of further top line growth but did not explicitly confirm the previous indication of ca. 10%. Regarding the target of a double-digit EBIT margin (before restructuring costs, but including positive one-offs) it was acknowledged that it could be rather a rounded double-digit figure (so >9.5%) than in the 10.X% magnitude. So while not far off, consensus expectations might come down a bit. Additionally more restructuring efforts are required, which goes along with higher charges this year and some costs to be digested also in 2018e. The message regarding trading conditions, particularly for the Land segment, remained a bullish one. Order intake growth across European markets (with the exception of the UK) was compelling and also demand in China is growing again. The marine crane business seems to get closer to the bottom (single-digit organic decline largely stable ytd), although the inflection point might is not yet visible given Palfingers back-end position in the vessels production value chain. To sum up, our view on the investment case is unchanged. Palfinger is a compelling growth story, but that is well reflected in market estimates which discount the companys bullish outlook. 2017-18 adjusted P/Es of 17.0x and 14.1x are slightly above the long-term median (last 7 years) of ca. 16.0x and 13.1x, respectively. The long-term EV/EBITDA medians of 10.0x (1y fwd) and 8.4x (2y fwd) are in line with current trading multiples of 9.9x and 8.1x, respectively. Our target price implies a 2018e P/E of 15.5x, EV/EBITDA of 9.5x and EV/EBIT of 13.0x.
     

    Strong 4Q results required: Palfingers FY 17 outlook suggests adj. EBIT of approx. EUR 145 mn. In order to reach this figure, 4Q adj. EBIT needs to be about at the 2Q level (the seasonally strongest quarter) of ca. EUR 40 mn. This in turn implies a ca. 50% yoy increase and margin a notch above 10%. Apart from the flagged price increase and the good order book, we think requires a combination of profitable product mix and sequentially lower corporate costs.
     
    Lower estimates: We have reduced 2017e adj. EBIT by 3% to EUR 146 mn, implying a 30 bps margin cut to 9.8%. Coupled with higher restructuring costs and a weaker financial result this triggered a 9% EPS cut to EUR 1.95. For 2018e we have kept adj. EBIT of EUR 168 mn unchanged, but incorporating restructuring costs of EUR 5 mn translates into 3% lower stated EBIT of EUR 163 mn and 4% lower EPS of EUR 2.68. Virtually no changes were made to 2019e.
     
    Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 42 (incl. DPS of EUR 0.64) is based on a combination of a DCF model (TG 2%, perpetual EBIT margin 12.5%, weighting 2/3) and an economic profit model (post-tax ROCE of 11% in 2018e).

    Company im Artikel

    Palfinger

     
    Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Crane
    Show latest Report (28.10.2017)
     
    Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Palfinger-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker ICF BANK AG, Deutsche Bank AG, Erste Group Bank AG und Virtu Financial Ireland Limited, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



    Palfinger © Martina Draper/photaq





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    Palfinger
    Akt. Indikation:  24.15 / 24.40
    Uhrzeit:  13:53:06
    Veränderung zu letztem SK:  1.15%
    Letzter SK:  24.00 ( -2.24%)



     

    Bildnachweis

    1. Palfinger , (© Martina Draper/photaq)   >> Öffnen auf photaq.com

    Aktien auf dem Radar:DO&CO, Rosenbauer, Polytec Group, Austriacard Holdings AG, Addiko Bank, SBO, Rosgix, Porr, Uniqa, VIG, CA Immo, Österreichische Post, AT&S, ams-Osram, Frequentis, Kostad, Marinomed Biotech, Warimpex, S Immo, SW Umwelttechnik, Oberbank AG Stamm, Strabag, Zumtobel, Flughafen Wien, Athos Immobilien, Agrana, Amag, Erste Group, EVN, Immofinanz, Telekom Austria.


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    Palfinger, (© Martina Draper/photaq)


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