Ich stimme der Verwendung von Cookies zu. Auch wenn ich diese Website weiter nutze, gilt dies als Zustimmung.

Bitte lesen und akzeptieren Sie die Datenschutzinformation und Cookie-Informationen, damit Sie unser Angebot weiter nutzen können. Natürlich können Sie diese Einwilligung jederzeit widerrufen.





Inbox: Nach dem Kursminus ist Semperit für RCB jetzt ein Hold


Semperit
Akt. Indikation:  13.12 / 13.24
Uhrzeit:  13:00:51
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  0.15%
Letzter SK:  13.16 ( -1.05%)

12.12.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Semperit raised to HOLD, TP EUR 23.5 - Upgrade to HOLD after share price weakness 

- We upgrade Semperit to HOLD from REDUCE as the share price has fallen towards our unchanged target price of EUR 23.5
- 2017e will be a year to forget, shaped by a weak underlying performance and massively distorted by one-off
- All eyes remain centred on the restructuring steps to be implemented in the wake of the strategy review that should be completed by the end of 2Q 18
- No details are available so far but purchasing/procurement, the penetration of new markets are core pillars. We also expect further restructuring of the production footprint
- The focus topic remains the Sempermed segment. While we assume that cost cutting could bring the business back to a low to mid-single-digit EBIT margin, we also think that a divestment is a serious option
- We acknowledge that the turnaround story is tempting but also argue that the share price still discounts a substantial earnings recovery. We expect a tripling of EBIT in 2018e and almost a doubling yoy in 2019e

We upgrade Semperit to HOLD from REDUCE as the share price has fallen towards our unchanged target price of EUR 23.5. 2017e will be a year to forget, shaped by a weak underlying performance and massively distorted by one-off effects (potentially more to come in 4Q). Thus, all eyes remain centred on the restructuring steps to be implemented by the new management. The strategy review supported by a consultancy firm commenced in October and should be completed by the end of 2Q 18. For the time being the management does not provide insight on the specific restructuring areas/measures and associated costs (apart from the general hint that significant charges could occur). However, it is apparent that a more efficient purchasing/procurement organisation and streamlined logistics are core pillars and that the penetration of new markets and customer industries is mulled in order to beef up the growth profile. Moreover, we also expect further restructuring of the production footprint in order to enhance economies of scale in the production. For the time being we think that Semperit appears largely fairly valued. We acknowledge that the turnaround story is tempting but also argue that the share price still discounts a substantial earnings recovery, which suggests that not every savings measure announced will lead to upgrades of market forecasts. On our forecasts (we expect a tripling of EBIT in 2018e and almost a doubling yoy in 2019e) we find the stock trading at a 2019e P/E of 14.7x, a single-digit discount to the peer group. The stock admittedly looks attractive on EV/EBITDA of 6.6x which offers a 30% discount, but its EV/EBIT of 11.1x is almost in line with the peer group.

Quo vadis Sempermed turnaround and/or divestment? The focus topic, however, remains the Sempermed segment, which should record the second consecutive year in red figures in 2017e (excl. one-offs, 2015 was about break-even if the Thai JV contribution is stripped out). While we assume that cost cutting could bring the business back to a low to mid-single-digit EBIT margin, we see limitations to a higher profitability (median of ~9% in the decade before Latexx Partners acquisition) given scale disadvantages and price pressure from its Asian competitors. Moreover, from a ROCE and cash conversion point of view the Malaysian operations are likely to remain dilutive. We think that a divestment is a serious option which would free up management capacity, enable a stronger growth focus on the industrial businesses and would restore Semperits financial flexibility (we assume an increase of net debt towards ca. EUR 190 mn in 2018e excl. cash drain from further restructuring initiatives).

Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 23.5 (incl. DPS of EUR 0.30) is based on an equally weighted economic profit method and a DCF model. While the former approach renders a fair value of about EUR 21, the latter suggests approximately EUR 25.

Company im Artikel

Semperit

Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Semperit-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Hudson River Trading Europe, Virtu Financial Ireland Limited und Wood & Company Financial Services, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Semperit © finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper



Aktien auf dem Radar:Flughafen Wien, Porr, UBM, Austriacard Holdings AG, Warimpex, Amag, Uniqa, Mayr-Melnhof, Rosenbauer, Wienerberger, Österreichische Post, Polytec Group, RBI, Oberbank AG Stamm, BKS Bank Stamm, Addiko Bank, Agrana, CA Immo, Erste Group, EVN, Immofinanz, Strabag, Telekom Austria, VIG, adidas, Münchener Rück, Beiersdorf, Airbus Group, BMW, Continental, Merck KGaA.

(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Random Partner #goboersewien

wikifolio
wikifolio ging 2012 online und ist heute Europas führende Online-Plattform mit Handelsstrategien für alle Anleger, die Wert auf smarte Geldanlage legen. wikifolio Trader, darunter auch Vollzeitinvestoren, erfolgreiche Unternehmer, Experten bestimmter Branchen, Vermögensverwalter oder Finanzredaktionen, teilen ihre Handelsideen in Musterportfolios, den wikifolios. Diesen kannst du einfach und direkt folgen – mit einer Investition in das zugehörige, besicherte wikifolio-Zertifikat.

>> Besuchen Sie 68 weitere Partner auf boerse-social.com/goboersewien


Meistgelesen
>> mehr





PIR-Zeichnungsprodukte
AT0000A2TLL0
AT0000A347X9
AT0000A2B667
Newsflow
>> mehr

Börse Social Club Board
>> mehr
    BSN MA-Event Warimpex
    #gabb #1546

    Featured Partner Video

    Nicht in der Sekunde

    Das Sporttagebuch mit Michael Knöppel - 30. Jänner 2024 E-Mail: sporttagebuch.michael@gmail.com Instagram: @das_sporttagebuch Twitter: @Sporttagebuch_
    Das Sporttagebuch mit Michael Knöppel - 30...

    Books josefchladek.com

    Todd Hido
    House Hunting
    2019
    Nazraeli

    Robert Frank
    The Americans (fifth American edition)
    1978
    Aperture

    Christian Reister
    Driftwood 15 | New York
    2023
    Self published

    Vladyslav Krasnoshchok
    Bolnichka (Владислава Краснощока
    2023
    Moksop

    Maria Sturm
    You Don't Look Native to Me
    2023
    Void

    Inbox: Nach dem Kursminus ist Semperit für RCB jetzt ein Hold


    12.12.2017, 5102 Zeichen

    12.12.2017

    Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

    Semperit raised to HOLD, TP EUR 23.5 - Upgrade to HOLD after share price weakness 

    - We upgrade Semperit to HOLD from REDUCE as the share price has fallen towards our unchanged target price of EUR 23.5
    - 2017e will be a year to forget, shaped by a weak underlying performance and massively distorted by one-off
    - All eyes remain centred on the restructuring steps to be implemented in the wake of the strategy review that should be completed by the end of 2Q 18
    - No details are available so far but purchasing/procurement, the penetration of new markets are core pillars. We also expect further restructuring of the production footprint
    - The focus topic remains the Sempermed segment. While we assume that cost cutting could bring the business back to a low to mid-single-digit EBIT margin, we also think that a divestment is a serious option
    - We acknowledge that the turnaround story is tempting but also argue that the share price still discounts a substantial earnings recovery. We expect a tripling of EBIT in 2018e and almost a doubling yoy in 2019e

    We upgrade Semperit to HOLD from REDUCE as the share price has fallen towards our unchanged target price of EUR 23.5. 2017e will be a year to forget, shaped by a weak underlying performance and massively distorted by one-off effects (potentially more to come in 4Q). Thus, all eyes remain centred on the restructuring steps to be implemented by the new management. The strategy review supported by a consultancy firm commenced in October and should be completed by the end of 2Q 18. For the time being the management does not provide insight on the specific restructuring areas/measures and associated costs (apart from the general hint that significant charges could occur). However, it is apparent that a more efficient purchasing/procurement organisation and streamlined logistics are core pillars and that the penetration of new markets and customer industries is mulled in order to beef up the growth profile. Moreover, we also expect further restructuring of the production footprint in order to enhance economies of scale in the production. For the time being we think that Semperit appears largely fairly valued. We acknowledge that the turnaround story is tempting but also argue that the share price still discounts a substantial earnings recovery, which suggests that not every savings measure announced will lead to upgrades of market forecasts. On our forecasts (we expect a tripling of EBIT in 2018e and almost a doubling yoy in 2019e) we find the stock trading at a 2019e P/E of 14.7x, a single-digit discount to the peer group. The stock admittedly looks attractive on EV/EBITDA of 6.6x which offers a 30% discount, but its EV/EBIT of 11.1x is almost in line with the peer group.

    Quo vadis Sempermed turnaround and/or divestment? The focus topic, however, remains the Sempermed segment, which should record the second consecutive year in red figures in 2017e (excl. one-offs, 2015 was about break-even if the Thai JV contribution is stripped out). While we assume that cost cutting could bring the business back to a low to mid-single-digit EBIT margin, we see limitations to a higher profitability (median of ~9% in the decade before Latexx Partners acquisition) given scale disadvantages and price pressure from its Asian competitors. Moreover, from a ROCE and cash conversion point of view the Malaysian operations are likely to remain dilutive. We think that a divestment is a serious option which would free up management capacity, enable a stronger growth focus on the industrial businesses and would restore Semperits financial flexibility (we assume an increase of net debt towards ca. EUR 190 mn in 2018e excl. cash drain from further restructuring initiatives).

    Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 23.5 (incl. DPS of EUR 0.30) is based on an equally weighted economic profit method and a DCF model. While the former approach renders a fair value of about EUR 21, the latter suggests approximately EUR 25.

    Company im Artikel

    Semperit

    Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Semperit-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Hudson River Trading Europe, Virtu Financial Ireland Limited und Wood & Company Financial Services, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



    Semperit © finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper





    BSN Podcasts
    Christian Drastil: Wiener Börse Plausch

    Song #49: Freedom Or Party Time Forever (Stop War CD feat. Klemens Eiter and Ruzanna Ananyan)




    Semperit
    Akt. Indikation:  13.12 / 13.24
    Uhrzeit:  13:00:51
    Veränderung zu letztem SK:  0.15%
    Letzter SK:  13.16 ( -1.05%)



     

    Bildnachweis

    1. Semperit , (© finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper)   >> Öffnen auf photaq.com

    Aktien auf dem Radar:Flughafen Wien, Porr, UBM, Austriacard Holdings AG, Warimpex, Amag, Uniqa, Mayr-Melnhof, Rosenbauer, Wienerberger, Österreichische Post, Polytec Group, RBI, Oberbank AG Stamm, BKS Bank Stamm, Addiko Bank, Agrana, CA Immo, Erste Group, EVN, Immofinanz, Strabag, Telekom Austria, VIG, adidas, Münchener Rück, Beiersdorf, Airbus Group, BMW, Continental, Merck KGaA.


    Random Partner

    wikifolio
    wikifolio ging 2012 online und ist heute Europas führende Online-Plattform mit Handelsstrategien für alle Anleger, die Wert auf smarte Geldanlage legen. wikifolio Trader, darunter auch Vollzeitinvestoren, erfolgreiche Unternehmer, Experten bestimmter Branchen, Vermögensverwalter oder Finanzredaktionen, teilen ihre Handelsideen in Musterportfolios, den wikifolios. Diesen kannst du einfach und direkt folgen – mit einer Investition in das zugehörige, besicherte wikifolio-Zertifikat.

    >> Besuchen Sie 68 weitere Partner auf boerse-social.com/partner


    Semperit, (© finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper)


    Useletter

    Die Useletter "Morning Xpresso" und "Evening Xtrakt" heben sich deutlich von den gängigen Newslettern ab. Beispiele ansehen bzw. kostenfrei anmelden. Wichtige Börse-Infos garantiert.

    Newsletter abonnieren

    Runplugged

    Infos über neue Financial Literacy Audio Files für die Runplugged App
    (kostenfrei downloaden über http://runplugged.com/spreadit)

    per Newsletter erhalten


    Meistgelesen
    >> mehr





    PIR-Zeichnungsprodukte
    AT0000A2TLL0
    AT0000A347X9
    AT0000A2B667
    Newsflow
    >> mehr

    Börse Social Club Board
    >> mehr
      BSN MA-Event Warimpex
      #gabb #1546

      Featured Partner Video

      Nicht in der Sekunde

      Das Sporttagebuch mit Michael Knöppel - 30. Jänner 2024 E-Mail: sporttagebuch.michael@gmail.com Instagram: @das_sporttagebuch Twitter: @Sporttagebuch_
      Das Sporttagebuch mit Michael Knöppel - 30...

      Books josefchladek.com

      Elena Helfrecht
      Plexus
      2023
      Void

      Horst Pannwitz
      Berlin. Symphonie einer Weltstadt
      1959
      Ernst Staneck Verlag

      Andreas H. Bitesnich
      dots on paper
      2023
      teNeues Verlag GmbH

      Ray Mortenson
      Meadowland
      1983
      Lustrum Press

      Masahisa Fukase Yohko / 深瀬 昌久 洋子

      1978
      Asahi Sonorama