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Inbox: RCB erhöht Mayr-Melnhof-Kursziel


Mayr-Melnhof
Akt. Indikation:  115.80 / 117.00
Uhrzeit:  22:53:41
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  -0.68%
Letzter SK:  117.20 ( 0.69%)

22.08.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Mayr-Melnhof confirmed at BUY, TP EUR 123 - Cartonboard margin recovery confirmed

- We maintain the BUY recommendation for Mayr-Melnhof on the back of a slight target price increase to EUR 123 from EUR 119
- 2Q results were no catalyst, but we identify two positive take-aways: 1) The EBIT margin in the MM Karton division recouped the 7% threshold thanks to higher selling prices and 2) the company gave a more confident outlook, pointing towards a broad-based strengthening of order behaviour in its main European markets
- In the short run we regard a potential M&A transaction (pharma packaging) as the main catalyst for the share price
- We have tweaked our EBIT estimate for the current year to EUR 213 mn (flat yoy) from EUR 216 mn whereas 2018-19e operating profit estimates of EUR 224 mn and EUR 233 mn, respectively, have remained unchanged.

We maintain the BUY recommendation for Mayr-Melnhof on the back of a slight target price increase to EUR 123 from EUR 119. 2Q results were no catalyst, with operating profit and EPS marginally shy of expectations, but we identify two positive take-aways. Firstly, the EBIT margin in the MM Karton division recouped the 7% threshold from 5.6% in 4Q and 6.1% in 1Q as higher selling prices but also efficiency improvements over-compensated for higher recovered paper costs. We think this improvement once again underscores the companys track record when it comes to preserving/restoring profitability. Importantly, CEO Hörmanseder displayed confidence that profitability should remain >7% also in 2H (vs. 5.8% in 2H 16), suggesting a strongly positive earnings momentum. We understood that as of 3Q (Aug/Sep) the company has all selling price increases in the books, which heralds a stable price-cost differential (management does not anticipate a further uptick of prices for the time being owing to sufficient waste paper supply). Secondly, the company gave a more confident outlook, pointing towards a broad-based strengthening of order behaviour in its main European markets, which should not only preserve high capacity utilisation rates but also facilitate the passing on of input cost inflation. With regard to 2017 the management reiterated that the prior years record result represents a challenging level (do our best to match 2016). In the short run we regard a potential M&A transaction (pharma packaging) as the main catalyst for the share price. Although reiterating the commitment to external growth opportunities, the management was also vocal that price expectations are elevated (currently 10-11x EBITDA is demanded by sellers, whereas Mayr-Melnhof regards 8-8.5x as threshold), which hinders value-accretive transactions.
 
Fine-tuning of 2017e earnings estimates, no changes thereafter: We have tweaked our EBIT estimate for the current year to EUR 213 mn (flat yoy) from EUR 216 mn and thus EPS has come down to EUR 7.64 from EUR 7.73. The 2018-19e operating profit estimates of EUR 224 mn and EUR 233 mn, respectively, have remained unchanged.
 
Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 123 (incl. DPS of EUR 3.10) is based on an equally weighted combination of economic profit (renders about EUR 114 based on the 2018e post-tax ROCE estimate of 11.2%) and DCF (suggests ca. EUR 126 based on a perpetual EBIT margin of 8.7% and TG of 1.5%) models. Compared to the peer group MMKs valuation appears compelling. In terms of 2017-18e P/Es the stock is valued in line, but offers a ca. 15% discount on EV/EBITDA multiples (6.9x and 6.4x vs. sector median of 8.1x and 7.5x) which widens to a range of 20-25% on EV/EBIT (10.2x and 9.4x vs. sector median of 13.1x and 11.5x).

Company im Artikel

Mayr-Melnhof

 
Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Zykliker Österreich
Show latest Report (19.08.2017)
 
Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Mayr-Melnhof-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Erste Group Bank AG, Oddo Seydler Bank AG und Virtu Financial Ireland Limited, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Mayr-Melnhof © finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper



Aktien auf dem Radar:Rosenbauer, Frequentis, SBO, Austriacard Holdings AG, Addiko Bank, RHI Magnesita, EVN, VIG, Wienerberger, Pierer Mobility, Bawag, UBM, SW Umwelttechnik, Oberbank AG Stamm, Agrana, Amag, CA Immo, Erste Group, Flughafen Wien, Immofinanz, Kapsch TrafficCom, Palfinger, Österreichische Post, Telekom Austria, Uniqa.

(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

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    Inbox: RCB erhöht Mayr-Melnhof-Kursziel


    22.08.2017, 4765 Zeichen

    22.08.2017

    Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

    Mayr-Melnhof confirmed at BUY, TP EUR 123 - Cartonboard margin recovery confirmed

    - We maintain the BUY recommendation for Mayr-Melnhof on the back of a slight target price increase to EUR 123 from EUR 119
    - 2Q results were no catalyst, but we identify two positive take-aways: 1) The EBIT margin in the MM Karton division recouped the 7% threshold thanks to higher selling prices and 2) the company gave a more confident outlook, pointing towards a broad-based strengthening of order behaviour in its main European markets
    - In the short run we regard a potential M&A transaction (pharma packaging) as the main catalyst for the share price
    - We have tweaked our EBIT estimate for the current year to EUR 213 mn (flat yoy) from EUR 216 mn whereas 2018-19e operating profit estimates of EUR 224 mn and EUR 233 mn, respectively, have remained unchanged.

    We maintain the BUY recommendation for Mayr-Melnhof on the back of a slight target price increase to EUR 123 from EUR 119. 2Q results were no catalyst, with operating profit and EPS marginally shy of expectations, but we identify two positive take-aways. Firstly, the EBIT margin in the MM Karton division recouped the 7% threshold from 5.6% in 4Q and 6.1% in 1Q as higher selling prices but also efficiency improvements over-compensated for higher recovered paper costs. We think this improvement once again underscores the companys track record when it comes to preserving/restoring profitability. Importantly, CEO Hörmanseder displayed confidence that profitability should remain >7% also in 2H (vs. 5.8% in 2H 16), suggesting a strongly positive earnings momentum. We understood that as of 3Q (Aug/Sep) the company has all selling price increases in the books, which heralds a stable price-cost differential (management does not anticipate a further uptick of prices for the time being owing to sufficient waste paper supply). Secondly, the company gave a more confident outlook, pointing towards a broad-based strengthening of order behaviour in its main European markets, which should not only preserve high capacity utilisation rates but also facilitate the passing on of input cost inflation. With regard to 2017 the management reiterated that the prior years record result represents a challenging level (do our best to match 2016). In the short run we regard a potential M&A transaction (pharma packaging) as the main catalyst for the share price. Although reiterating the commitment to external growth opportunities, the management was also vocal that price expectations are elevated (currently 10-11x EBITDA is demanded by sellers, whereas Mayr-Melnhof regards 8-8.5x as threshold), which hinders value-accretive transactions.
     
    Fine-tuning of 2017e earnings estimates, no changes thereafter: We have tweaked our EBIT estimate for the current year to EUR 213 mn (flat yoy) from EUR 216 mn and thus EPS has come down to EUR 7.64 from EUR 7.73. The 2018-19e operating profit estimates of EUR 224 mn and EUR 233 mn, respectively, have remained unchanged.
     
    Valuation: The total-return target price of EUR 123 (incl. DPS of EUR 3.10) is based on an equally weighted combination of economic profit (renders about EUR 114 based on the 2018e post-tax ROCE estimate of 11.2%) and DCF (suggests ca. EUR 126 based on a perpetual EBIT margin of 8.7% and TG of 1.5%) models. Compared to the peer group MMKs valuation appears compelling. In terms of 2017-18e P/Es the stock is valued in line, but offers a ca. 15% discount on EV/EBITDA multiples (6.9x and 6.4x vs. sector median of 8.1x and 7.5x) which widens to a range of 20-25% on EV/EBIT (10.2x and 9.4x vs. sector median of 13.1x and 11.5x).

    Company im Artikel

    Mayr-Melnhof

     
    Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group Zykliker Österreich
    Show latest Report (19.08.2017)
     
    Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Mayr-Melnhof-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Erste Group Bank AG, Oddo Seydler Bank AG und Virtu Financial Ireland Limited, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



    Mayr-Melnhof © finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper





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    Mayr-Melnhof
    Akt. Indikation:  115.80 / 117.00
    Uhrzeit:  22:53:41
    Veränderung zu letztem SK:  -0.68%
    Letzter SK:  117.20 ( 0.69%)



     

    Bildnachweis

    1. Mayr-Melnhof , (© finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper)   >> Öffnen auf photaq.com

    Aktien auf dem Radar:Rosenbauer, Frequentis, SBO, Austriacard Holdings AG, Addiko Bank, RHI Magnesita, EVN, VIG, Wienerberger, Pierer Mobility, Bawag, UBM, SW Umwelttechnik, Oberbank AG Stamm, Agrana, Amag, CA Immo, Erste Group, Flughafen Wien, Immofinanz, Kapsch TrafficCom, Palfinger, Österreichische Post, Telekom Austria, Uniqa.


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    Mayr-Melnhof, (© finanzmarktfoto.at/Martina Draper)


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