Inbox: Palfinger - Berenberg passt Kursziel an, weiter Buy

Core business still strong: Group sales in Q3 increased by 2.5% to EUR339m on difficult comps, 3% behind consensus, which expected a stronger development in the seasonally weakest quarter due to a shorter factory closure period in the summer. Stronger growth in its Land segment (+3.8%) compensated for the sales decline in Sea (-3.7%). Exceptionally high capacity utilisation, especially in Europe, resulted in strong adjusted EBIT growth of 10.7% to EUR28m (+60bp margin improvement to 8.3%), although this was 6% below consensus (EUR30m) as profitability in the Sea segment disappointed.

 

●  Palfinger outperforms competition: In Q3, Palfinger grew its Land segment by 3.8% while its main competitor, Cargotec ’s HIAB, grew sales by 0.8%, suggesting further market share gains for the Austrian market leader. Palfinger improved its segment profitability by 220bp yoy to 13.2%, while HIAB’s EBIT margin was only slightly up by 20bp (13.4%) due to supply chain problems. We also note HIAB’s already strong profitability in the US market, where Palfinger is in a transitional year with restructuring efforts ongoing. We believe that when successfully concluded this year, Palfinger will have gained a substantial leg up versus its competitors in terms of profitability from next year, as the US makes up c20% of revenues, with operating margins still only estimated in the mid-single digits.

 

●  Conference call feedback: CEO Herbert Ortner confirmed that order intake remained at a very high level in Q3 and October, with good visibility too for the next 1-2 quarters. The majority of the company’s restructuring work is on track, Mr Ortner confirmed. The company estimates restructuring costs of EUR15m-18m for 2017 (Berenberg estimate: EUR17m), but while management does not believe that these will drop to zero in 2018 (Berenberg estimate: EUR5m), it is anticipating that most restructuring measures in North America should be concluded this year. Management still thinks that an adjusted EBIT margin of around 10% for the group is possible this year, despite weak profitability in the Sea segment, which is unlikely to break even in Q4 (Berenberg FY17 EBIT margin estimate: 9.5%). Capex for this year is expected to be between EUR60m and EUR65m, above the previous guidance of cEUR55m. No M&A is expected in the short term.

 

●  Changes to estimates: We raise our Land EBIT margin by 70bp for 2017, but weaker profitability in Sea compensates for the increase. Also, higher minorities contribute to the c4-5% EPS cut in 2017-2019E. We change our price target to EUR45.00 from EUR46.00.

 

●  Valuation: Palfinger trades 10% below the peer group average on 2018E EV/EBIT (12.9x versus 14.3x average) despite a much better margin profile.

Buy