Inbox: Rosenbauer: Keine Game-Changing-Infos im Zuge der Q3-Zahlen, weiter Hold

Akt. Indikation:  48.50 / 49.10
Uhrzeit:  13:04:20
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  -0.20%
Letzter SK:  48.90 ( -1.01%)

Rosenbauer confirmed at HOLD, TP EUR 53 - Minor model update post 3Q results

- We confirm the HOLD rating and the target price of EUR 53 for Rosenbauer
- 3Q figures were mostly in line with our forecasts with the exception of slightly higher headline EBIT. However, as earnings were inflated by the release of provisions, we deem the results quality as mediocre
- We think there is a mismatch between the 3Q performance and the FY guidance and raise 2017e EBIT by 6% to EUR 30 mn (margin 3.4% vs. guidance 3%)
- Bottom line, no game changing information emerged from the results release. Our analysis suggests that the share price still discounts a decent earnings recovery, with a roughly 6% margin to be achieved in the medium term

We confirm the HOLD rating and the target price of EUR 53 for Rosenbauer. 3Q figures were mostly in line with our forecasts with the exception of slightly higher headline EBIT. However, from our point of view, the results quality was mediocre as earnings were inflated by the release of (management bonus) provisions. Stripping out this effect, underlying EBIT was fully in line with RCBe. Moreover cash conversion was unconvincing with the 1-3Q operating cash burn doubling to EUR -51 mn. Bottom line, no game changing information emerged from the results release and the companys perception of the trading conditions apparently did not change compared to recent occasions. In line with our assumptions Rosenbauers operating performance should improve sequentially. The management pointed out that supply chain improvements achieved at Plant II in Leonding will serve as a blueprint for Plant I. Moreover, as already envisaged in the 2Q conference call, the capacity utilisation rates in Panther production should have bottomed out, heralding more scale effects in the next year. We see the extent of the price pressure in the industry as the main burden to the companys cost savings retention. Overall, although the company should have left the worst behind and earnings should grow markedly in 2018e (partly mechanically due to the non-recurrence of one-offs), we have no indication so far that Rosenbauers earnings recovery will outperform current forecasts. Moreover, our analysis suggests that the share price still discounts a decent earnings recovery, with a roughly 6% margin to be achieved in the medium term.