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Inbox: RCB bleibt dabei: Atrium ist ein Hold


03.10.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Atrium confirmed at HOLD, TP EUR 4.40 - Attractive dividend yield but lack of growth

- Recurring earnings forecasts raised by more than 10% in 2017e and 2018e
- NAV projections cut between 3.5% and 4.4% over the entire forecast horizon
- No structural progress for the portfolio from acquisitions or disposals
- HOLD rating maintained

We raise our recurring earnings projections mainly due to the announcement of a cost savings program but we also cut our forecast for the group´s NAV amid the payment of a special dividend. Atrium manages its asset base very well and continues with its re-development projects for its existing shopping malls in Poland, which will lead to organic growth of rental income. At the same time we think there is no progress in terms of portfolio structure from meaningful acquisitions or profitable disposals. Hence we maintain our unchanged target price of EUR 4.4 and HOLD rating given the lack of projected growth and in absence of upside triggers.
 
Legacy legal case settlement: In March 2017 Atrium European Real Estate signed a framework agreement with AdvoFin Prozessfinanzierung and Salburg Rechtsanwalts GmbH that it expects will resolve a significant majority of the Austrian legacy legal issues. The agreement will enable clients of AdvoFin who purchased Austrian Depository Certificates (ADC) of Meinl European Land in the past to resolve their claims. If all eligible ADC investors opt to participate, the maximum payment would be EUR 44 mn according to the release. A total provision of EUR 51.6 mn was recognized for all related legacy legal claims on the balance sheet of Atrium in 2Q 2017. We think the framework agreement is good news, because it removes a very big legal risk and associated cost for the group going forward.
 
Changes to our estimates: Following the 1H 2017 results release, the announcement of a cost savings program of EUR 10 mn and the payment of a special dividend of EUR 0.14/share in June we updated our estimates for recurring earnings and NAV accordingly. On balance we raise our recurring earnings forecasts by 14% in 2017e, by 12% in 2018e and by 9% in 2019e. Elsewhere we cut our projections for NAV between 3.5% and 4.4% over the entire forecast period given the payment of a special dividend. Currently the group´s development activities are focussed on modernisation and extension of existing shopping malls in Poland for a remaining development cost of EUR 229 mn until 2021. Morever, we also model cash proceeds of EUR 211 mn from the disposal of all Hungarian assets and 10% of the Polish assets over the next five years.
 
Limited valuation upside: Based on our new estimates for 2018e the shares of Atrium trade at a P/FFO (x) of 13.1 and a P/B(x) of 0.8, which appears cheap relative to the property sector but in line with the average of its own valuation multiples over the last 3 years and we see no reason for a re-rating at the moment. The prospective dividend yield of the company is the highest in our coverage universe and hence we think that Atrium remains very attractive for yield investors. At the same time we forecast hardly any growth of recurring earnings (FFO) or NAV in the foreseeable future, which we think limits the share price upside.

Atrium Promenada (Warsaw, Poland) - top 10 properties of Atrium European Real Estate (Bild: Atrium, http://www.aere.com/Downloads.aspx) © www.shutterstock.com



Aktien auf dem Radar:Rosenbauer, Flughafen Wien, Porr, Austriacard Holdings AG, Amag, Addiko Bank, VIG, Uniqa, ATX, ATX TR, Andritz, Frequentis, Lenzing, Mayr-Melnhof, Athos Immobilien, Wienerberger, Polytec Group, S Immo, Strabag, Oberbank AG Stamm, BKS Bank Stamm, Pierer Mobility, Marinomed Biotech, Agrana, CA Immo, Erste Group, EVN, Immofinanz, Österreichische Post, Telekom Austria.

(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

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    Inbox: RCB bleibt dabei: Atrium ist ein Hold


    03.10.2017, 3760 Zeichen

    03.10.2017

    Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

    Atrium confirmed at HOLD, TP EUR 4.40 - Attractive dividend yield but lack of growth

    - Recurring earnings forecasts raised by more than 10% in 2017e and 2018e
    - NAV projections cut between 3.5% and 4.4% over the entire forecast horizon
    - No structural progress for the portfolio from acquisitions or disposals
    - HOLD rating maintained

    We raise our recurring earnings projections mainly due to the announcement of a cost savings program but we also cut our forecast for the group´s NAV amid the payment of a special dividend. Atrium manages its asset base very well and continues with its re-development projects for its existing shopping malls in Poland, which will lead to organic growth of rental income. At the same time we think there is no progress in terms of portfolio structure from meaningful acquisitions or profitable disposals. Hence we maintain our unchanged target price of EUR 4.4 and HOLD rating given the lack of projected growth and in absence of upside triggers.
     
    Legacy legal case settlement: In March 2017 Atrium European Real Estate signed a framework agreement with AdvoFin Prozessfinanzierung and Salburg Rechtsanwalts GmbH that it expects will resolve a significant majority of the Austrian legacy legal issues. The agreement will enable clients of AdvoFin who purchased Austrian Depository Certificates (ADC) of Meinl European Land in the past to resolve their claims. If all eligible ADC investors opt to participate, the maximum payment would be EUR 44 mn according to the release. A total provision of EUR 51.6 mn was recognized for all related legacy legal claims on the balance sheet of Atrium in 2Q 2017. We think the framework agreement is good news, because it removes a very big legal risk and associated cost for the group going forward.
     
    Changes to our estimates: Following the 1H 2017 results release, the announcement of a cost savings program of EUR 10 mn and the payment of a special dividend of EUR 0.14/share in June we updated our estimates for recurring earnings and NAV accordingly. On balance we raise our recurring earnings forecasts by 14% in 2017e, by 12% in 2018e and by 9% in 2019e. Elsewhere we cut our projections for NAV between 3.5% and 4.4% over the entire forecast period given the payment of a special dividend. Currently the group´s development activities are focussed on modernisation and extension of existing shopping malls in Poland for a remaining development cost of EUR 229 mn until 2021. Morever, we also model cash proceeds of EUR 211 mn from the disposal of all Hungarian assets and 10% of the Polish assets over the next five years.
     
    Limited valuation upside: Based on our new estimates for 2018e the shares of Atrium trade at a P/FFO (x) of 13.1 and a P/B(x) of 0.8, which appears cheap relative to the property sector but in line with the average of its own valuation multiples over the last 3 years and we see no reason for a re-rating at the moment. The prospective dividend yield of the company is the highest in our coverage universe and hence we think that Atrium remains very attractive for yield investors. At the same time we forecast hardly any growth of recurring earnings (FFO) or NAV in the foreseeable future, which we think limits the share price upside.

    Atrium Promenada (Warsaw, Poland) - top 10 properties of Atrium European Real Estate (Bild: Atrium, http://www.aere.com/Downloads.aspx) © www.shutterstock.com





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    Bildnachweis

    1. Atrium Promenada (Warsaw, Poland) - top 10 properties of Atrium European Real Estate (Bild: Atrium, http://www.aere.com/Downloads.aspx) , (© www.shutterstock.com)   >> Öffnen auf photaq.com

    Aktien auf dem Radar:Rosenbauer, Flughafen Wien, Porr, Austriacard Holdings AG, Amag, Addiko Bank, VIG, Uniqa, ATX, ATX TR, Andritz, Frequentis, Lenzing, Mayr-Melnhof, Athos Immobilien, Wienerberger, Polytec Group, S Immo, Strabag, Oberbank AG Stamm, BKS Bank Stamm, Pierer Mobility, Marinomed Biotech, Agrana, CA Immo, Erste Group, EVN, Immofinanz, Österreichische Post, Telekom Austria.


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    Atrium Promenada (Warsaw, Poland) - top 10 properties of Atrium European Real Estate (Bild: Atrium, http://www.aere.com/Downloads.aspx), (© www.shutterstock.com)


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