In einem CEE-Sektorreport stufen die Analysten der RCB die Aktie der ERste Group von Buy auf Hold zurück, erhöhen aber das Kursziel von 40 auf 43 Euro. In dem Update werden u.a. das Steinhoff-Exposure sowie der Verkauf des S Immo-Anteils thematisiert.

Hier der Report:

Erste Group (Feb.28): Higher COR, but S Immo gain

- We expect Erste to deliver a solid set of 4Q results based on good loan growth and NIM supported by slight yield tailwind in CZ

- Still we expect higher COR compared to 2Q and 3Q due to seasonal effects (higher provisioning in 4Q) and based on Erste’s Steinhoff exposure (amount not yet disclosed)

- The higher provisioning however should be compensated by a one-off gain from selling Erste’s 10% stake in S Immo in December last year

- CZK appreciation (2% in 4Q) should be supportive for P&L translation and BPS
- Loan growth should remain strong (especially in CZ, SK and AT)
- We expect NII to slightly improve qoq supported by loan growth and tailwind from CZ yields - Erste’s CET1 ratio should be improving qoq (RCBe: 13.1%) given the inclusion of 2H profits in regulatory capital calculation, but will not yet include the IFRS9 impact (ca. 30 bps)
- In line with the previous guidance and the 1H accrual we assume a DPS of EUR 1.2
- We expect the 2018 guidance of ROTE 10%+ to remain unchanged translating into a net profit guidance of at least EUR 1.2 bn.

Changes in estimates/valuation: We have fine-tuned our estimates increasing gains from financial assets (RCBe 4Q: EUR 31 mn) due to a one-off gain from selling Erste’s stake in S Immo and slightly raising our COR assumptions expecting some additional provisioning on Erste’s Steinhoff exposure in 4Q. For 2018e and 2019e we leave our estimates nearly unchanged (slightly increasing CZ top-line on yield recovery and CZK appreciation, but higher opex). We shift our DDGG valuation forward by one year and plugged in revised risk-free rates, thus raise our TP to EUR 43 (was EUR 40) and change our recommendation to HOLD from BUY.