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Inbox: RCB kürzt Lenzing-Kursziel


Lenzing
Akt. Indikation:  32.10 / 32.30
Uhrzeit:  20:07:40
Veränderung zu letztem SK:  -0.31%
Letzter SK:  32.30 ( -3.15%)

30.08.2017

Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

Lenzing confirmed at HOLD, TP EUR 145 - Likely test for specialty pricing 

Risks from an indicated increase of competitive viscose capacities and their impact on selling prices weigh on the share price

In light of industry growth and rising demand for specialty fibers the market is likely to be able to absorb part of the additional capacities, in our view, but capacity increases of potentially more than 10% should likely not go without a negative impact on market prices

Our calculations lead to slightly lower revenues and operating earnings in FY 18e (EBITDA EUR 511 mn) vs. FY 17e (EUR 525 mn). Additional TencelTM capacities in FY 19e should then allow again for a significant rise in earnings (EBITDA 19e EUR 581 mn)

TP cut to EUR 145 from EUR 150; reiteration of HOLD

While another record year looks to be on the cards for FY 17e (EBITDA 17e EUR 525 mn implying EBITDA 2H 17e of EUR 255 mn vs. 1H 17 of EUR 271 mn; FY 16 428 mn), the outlook for the next two business years is of higher uncertainty. According to Lenzings management, about 600 - 900 kt of competitive viscose capacities might come on stream next year representing some 10-15% of the total global viscose production capacities. Risks with regard to capacity related uncertainties, their impact on selling prices and the inherent risk of competition in the field of specialty fibres were the driving force behind the share price correction of some 25% since its high in May and stand against a more pronounced rebound in the short-term, in our view. We reiterate our HOLD recommendation slightly cutting our TP to EUR 145 from EUR 150 on a smaller cut of our FY 18e and FY 19 estimates.

Risks to viscose prices from new capacities: Given inherent industry growth of some 5-6% p.a. and the rising demand for specialty fibres the market is likely to be able to absorb part of the additional capacities, in our view. Nevertheless, capacity increases of potentially more than 10% should likely not go without negative impacts on market prices. We base our estimates on viscose prices being down 5-10% vs. current levels in FY 18e and additional FX headwinds from the recent EUR strength. The debottlenecking investments of specialty fibers and the launch of eco-responsible fiber brands (RefibraTM, EcoVeroTM) will have a compensating positive effect. However, in total our calculations lead to slightly lower revenues and operating earnings in FY 18e (EBITDA EUR 511 mn) vs. FY 17e (EUR 525 mn). Additional TencelTM capacities in FY 19e should then allow again for a significant rise in earnings (EBITDA 19e EUR 581 mn).

Valuation: Stressing the target multiple calculations (EV/EBITDA 8.0x, PER 14.0x) for FY 17e and FY 18e we derive fair values per share of EUR 158 and EUR 149, respectively. The economic profit model yields a fair value of about EUR 134 per share. When accounting for the value accretion of the new TencelTM plants that are expected to start operations in FY 19e values rise by between EUR 5-10 per share when discounted to year-end 2018. Taking a longer-term perspective using a DCF-model we calculate a fair value of EUR 151 incl. DPS 17e of EUR 4.20 (unchanged vs. total payment including a special dividend of EUR 1.20).

New branded specialty fibres having positive price effects: Recently Lenzing launched a new viscose fiber type EcoVeroTM. EcoVeroTM uses certified and controlled wood, a third-party controlled sustainable production process and an identification system that allows tracking the fibre. The fiber should be priced at a premium to standard viscose according to the management. The plants in Lenzing and Nanjing (about 50% of viscose capacities) could gradually shift production depending on demand. The Management has flagged a new product launch for October 6, 2017 that will hint at the new brand architecture that is to be presented in 1Q 18e.

Company im Artikel

Lenzing

 
Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group ATX
Show latest Report (26.08.2017)
 
Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Lenzing-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Baader Bank AG, Erste Group Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Oddo Seydler Bank AG, Société Générale S.A., Spire Europe Limited, Virtu Financial Ireland Limited und Wood & Company Financial Services, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



Buchenwald Lenzing (Bild: Markus Renner / Electric Arts)



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(BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

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    Inbox: RCB kürzt Lenzing-Kursziel


    30.08.2017, 5104 Zeichen

    30.08.2017

    Zugemailt von / gefunden bei: RCB (BSN-Hinweis: Lauftext im Original des Aussenders, Titel (immer) und Bebilderung (oft) durch boerse-social.com aus dem Fotoarchiv von photaq.com)

    Lenzing confirmed at HOLD, TP EUR 145 - Likely test for specialty pricing 

    Risks from an indicated increase of competitive viscose capacities and their impact on selling prices weigh on the share price

    In light of industry growth and rising demand for specialty fibers the market is likely to be able to absorb part of the additional capacities, in our view, but capacity increases of potentially more than 10% should likely not go without a negative impact on market prices

    Our calculations lead to slightly lower revenues and operating earnings in FY 18e (EBITDA EUR 511 mn) vs. FY 17e (EUR 525 mn). Additional TencelTM capacities in FY 19e should then allow again for a significant rise in earnings (EBITDA 19e EUR 581 mn)

    TP cut to EUR 145 from EUR 150; reiteration of HOLD

    While another record year looks to be on the cards for FY 17e (EBITDA 17e EUR 525 mn implying EBITDA 2H 17e of EUR 255 mn vs. 1H 17 of EUR 271 mn; FY 16 428 mn), the outlook for the next two business years is of higher uncertainty. According to Lenzings management, about 600 - 900 kt of competitive viscose capacities might come on stream next year representing some 10-15% of the total global viscose production capacities. Risks with regard to capacity related uncertainties, their impact on selling prices and the inherent risk of competition in the field of specialty fibres were the driving force behind the share price correction of some 25% since its high in May and stand against a more pronounced rebound in the short-term, in our view. We reiterate our HOLD recommendation slightly cutting our TP to EUR 145 from EUR 150 on a smaller cut of our FY 18e and FY 19 estimates.

    Risks to viscose prices from new capacities: Given inherent industry growth of some 5-6% p.a. and the rising demand for specialty fibres the market is likely to be able to absorb part of the additional capacities, in our view. Nevertheless, capacity increases of potentially more than 10% should likely not go without negative impacts on market prices. We base our estimates on viscose prices being down 5-10% vs. current levels in FY 18e and additional FX headwinds from the recent EUR strength. The debottlenecking investments of specialty fibers and the launch of eco-responsible fiber brands (RefibraTM, EcoVeroTM) will have a compensating positive effect. However, in total our calculations lead to slightly lower revenues and operating earnings in FY 18e (EBITDA EUR 511 mn) vs. FY 17e (EUR 525 mn). Additional TencelTM capacities in FY 19e should then allow again for a significant rise in earnings (EBITDA 19e EUR 581 mn).

    Valuation: Stressing the target multiple calculations (EV/EBITDA 8.0x, PER 14.0x) for FY 17e and FY 18e we derive fair values per share of EUR 158 and EUR 149, respectively. The economic profit model yields a fair value of about EUR 134 per share. When accounting for the value accretion of the new TencelTM plants that are expected to start operations in FY 19e values rise by between EUR 5-10 per share when discounted to year-end 2018. Taking a longer-term perspective using a DCF-model we calculate a fair value of EUR 151 incl. DPS 17e of EUR 4.20 (unchanged vs. total payment including a special dividend of EUR 1.20).

    New branded specialty fibres having positive price effects: Recently Lenzing launched a new viscose fiber type EcoVeroTM. EcoVeroTM uses certified and controlled wood, a third-party controlled sustainable production process and an identification system that allows tracking the fibre. The fiber should be priced at a premium to standard viscose according to the management. The plants in Lenzing and Nanjing (about 50% of viscose capacities) could gradually shift production depending on demand. The Management has flagged a new product launch for October 6, 2017 that will hint at the new brand architecture that is to be presented in 1Q 18e.

    Company im Artikel

    Lenzing

     
    Mitglied in der BSN Peer-Group ATX
    Show latest Report (26.08.2017)
     
    Für Zusatzliquidität im Orderbuch der Lenzing-Aktien sorgen die Raiffeisen Centrobank AG als Specialist sowie die Market Maker Baader Bank AG, Erste Group Bank AG, Hudson River Trading Europe, Oddo Seydler Bank AG, Société Générale S.A., Spire Europe Limited, Virtu Financial Ireland Limited und Wood & Company Financial Services, Klick auf Institut/Bank öffnet Übersicht.



    Buchenwald Lenzing (Bild: Markus Renner / Electric Arts)





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    Lenzing
    Akt. Indikation:  32.10 / 32.30
    Uhrzeit:  20:07:40
    Veränderung zu letztem SK:  -0.31%
    Letzter SK:  32.30 ( -3.15%)



     

    Bildnachweis

    1. Buchenwald Lenzing (Bild: Markus Renner / Electric Arts)   >> Öffnen auf photaq.com

    Aktien auf dem Radar:Warimpex, CA Immo, Wienerberger, Austriacard Holdings AG, Rosenbauer, UBM, EVN, Wiener Privatbank, VIG, Marinomed Biotech, Frequentis, ATX, ATX Prime, ATX TR, FACC, Agrana, AT&S, Mayr-Melnhof, Uniqa, Semperit, ams-Osram, Heid AG, Lenzing, Porr, S Immo, Addiko Bank, Oberbank AG Stamm, Amag, Erste Group, Flughafen Wien, Immofinanz.


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    Buchenwald Lenzing (Bild: Markus Renner / Electric Arts)


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