Inbox: RCB kürzt Kursziel für Lenzing

We are rather negative in the short term and reckon that support for viscose prices from rising input cost would only kick in later in 2018e once visibility on capacity additions increases. While Lenzing is certainly no pure-play on viscose any more, as speciality fibres earn premium prices, we reckon that the speciality fibres presented this year should only leave their mark on results in 2019e given lead times in the industry. We reckon that rising chemicals cost and the current viscose price momentum would already hurt 2017e EBITDA, which we have lowered by 4.6% to EUR 501 mn. However, weak pricing momentum for early 2018e and rising input cost for Lenzing are likely to lead to a more pronounced decline for mid-term EBITDA, which we see at EUR 397 mn for 2018e and EUR 457 mn for 2019e. While the latter is very much in line with consensus, our 2018e forecast is close to the bottom end of the range.