Die Analysten der Berenberg Bank stufen die AT&S-Aktie nach Bekanntgabe der Zahlen weiter mit Hold ein. Das Kursziel wandert von 19,00 auf 23,50 Euro. Die mSAP-Technologie laufe an der Auslastungsgrenze und auch die IC Substrat-Produktion ist auf einem hohen Level, so die Experten. Eine Entscheidung bezüglich der nächsten Investitionsphase in Chongqing wird in den kommenden Monaten erwartet, schreiben die Analysen. 

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Strong demand continues in Q3: AT&S’s Q3 revenue increased by 23% yoy to EUR280m, predominantly driven by strong developments within the mobile devices and substrates segment. This included strong demand from a key customer for the next technology generation of mobile devices (mSAP). Revenues from integrated circuits (IC) substrates from the two plants in Chongqing also remained at high levels. EBITDA improved by 72% yoy to EUR86m on the back of high utilisation, yield and efficiency as well as the successful optimisation of mSAP technology, where AT&S holds a market-leading position versus peers such as Kinsus, Ibiden and TTM.

● Ahead of the curve: On the company’s Q3 results call, CEO Andreas Gerstenmayer said that he believes that AT&S is currently one of the leading companies to offer serial production capabilities for mSAP technology. This can be demonstrated by the successful ramp-up of the production lines in Chongqing and Shanghai, ultimately resulting in high levels of capacity utilisation and yield. The company said that the adoption of mSAP mainboards by companies other than its key customer, which we believe to be Apple , should happen by 2019. For 2018/19, we increase our sales and EBITDA estimates by 2% and 11% respectively, reflecting continued high utilisation; however, we model no contribution from additional customers.

●  Chongqing II decision imminent: With mSAP production running at full capacity, a decision on the next investment phase is expected within the next few months. Currently, all new mSAP capacity is for the first generation and management has stated that AT&S is well positioned to adopt the next generation. While we do not model Chongqing II, we believe our capex estimates will increase for 2018/19 and we anticipate short-term impacts on margins for the ramp of new production lines.

 

●  Price target increased: After increasing our margin assumptions to reflect optimal yield levels for the mSAP production lines, our price target increases from EUR19.00 to EUR23.50. We also model in the EUR175m hybrid bond for 2018E (issued in November 2017) with an annual coupon of 4.75%; however, for valuation purposes we regard this as debt. The shares have continued to develop favourably ytd, rising by c9%. With a 2019E EV/EBITDA of 5.5x, AT&S trades on a c55% premium versus peers which are also deemed to offer serial production for mSAP, including Kinsus, Ibiden and TTM, and a c10% premium to a broader peer set. We believe this premium fairly reflects the company’s successful ramp-up of the new technology generation and we thus maintain our Hold rating.